Also, Pennsylvania is a state that his Vice President Joe Biden was suggested to offer some traction with working class Catholic voters.

But listen, it's also where Hillary Clinton ran a small town vs. big city campaign that beat Obama in the primaries, one similar to the McCain campaign of the last week.

I was there during that period; they're tough people accustomed to tough times. The main streets have gashes in the shop windows where this or that place has closed down. They drive large old cars that guzzle petrol like it's going out of fashion.

I remember speaking to a woman who praised Hillary Clinton for her stamina, for her refusal to admit defeat in what – already then - was becoming a lost cause campaign.

"What do you do?" I asked, mentally ticking the box that she was a homemaker, or perhaps worked in a clerical position. Cliches, after all, are there to keep us comfortable.

"I'm a private investigator," she said.

Shame on me, and shame on anyone who thinks they know exactly what's going on in this election.

The trend is there for Obama, though today's stockmarket rebound may begin to answer John McCain's prayers about the economy becoming Topic B, rather than Topic A.

My Pennsylvania PI's answer was another example of America's breadth, its constant unusualness, even in the midst of what seems an appalling homogeneity of strip malls, super-sized inedibles, and potholed highways.

Let's flip this. Today John McCain gave a speech about the economy in Virginia Beach, Virginia. "The turnaround begins here," an aide promised.

Only, the turnaround should be beginning somewhere else, in a battleground swing state like Ohio.

Virginia is a Republican haven, or has been. Bush won there in 2004, and 2000. The last time the state inclined Democrat was in 1964. It's a Southern state, so you'd expect McCain to be prospering electorally, given the base-oriented campaign he's been running.

Problem is, Obama is ahead in Virginia, by six points. Obama is forcing McCain to play defense in a state he should be taking for granted.

The question is, is Obama ahead in Virginia in the same way he's ahead in Pennsylvania?

Whenever I get excited about this election, and it's a daily event, I always remind myself of what I like to call the Russian Fallacy.

The Russian Fallacy began life as a piece in New Hampshire by a Russian television journalist with a tight deadline.

Obama was ahead in the polls, by a significant margin. Hillary Clinton had been seen almost-weeping in public. The obituaries were being written, including a story by our Russian friend, acclaiming an Obama triumph.

After Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire, I walked past the Russian journalist standing behind a blaze of lights, and doing The Most Embarrassing Live Interview Ever. She pulled it off. You're always right on television, even when you're wrong.

But I suspect it, and my Private Investigator friend in Scranton, Pennsylvania, are why Obama was in Philly yesterday, and why John McCain may be consoling himself with John 11: 38-53 - what you might otherwise know as the story of Lazarus.