It has turned out to be a strange year for lobster species. If you're thinking about eating WA lobster for Christmas, be prepared for a rude shock.

In Western Australia, crayfish numbers are predictable. In its larval stage (or puerulus), Western rock lobsters settle into seaweed beds to grow to their larger and tastier size. This behaviour acts as a handy way to predict future numbers of crayfish. Each month, the Department of Fisheries in Western Australia harvests a sample of puerulus from sets of traps. There is a direct correlation between the numbers of puerulus caught and the number of full-size lobster in 3 years time.

This year almost no puerulus have been found in the traps, the second smallest number since sampling started in the late 1960s. Unlike other years that have seen a drop in larval lobster numbers, this year it is not yet clear what is to blame for the precipitous decline. Any combination of overfishing, climate change or even the larval lobster settling somewhere different to where the traps are set may be responsible. Nor is it clear whether this is the beginning of the long term collapse of lobster or just a seasonal anomaly, but either way, the lobster fishing industry in Western Australia is looking forward to a few grim years ahead.

The best case scenario is that cause is overfishing because at the very least, this is something that can be readily controlled in one of the world's best managed fisheries.

The result for anybody thinking of serving up a conspicuously-sized lobster in place of the turkey this year is that lobster prices are roughly double last year due to reduced catch quotas. Maybe fisheries collapse will end the new(ish) Australian predilection for seafood at Christmas.

On the opposite side of the world, the price of American lobster is crashing. In the New York Times, Melissa Clark asks her fishmonger for the cause. It is:

“The economy,” he said. “People just aren’t buying, but in Maine their stocks are loaded. It’s all about supply and demand.”

At his shop, lobsters go for $10.99 a pound, about $3 less than last year — a trend seen all over town. Balducci’s is selling them for $14.99 to $16.99 a pound, $4 less than last year, and at Wild Edibles they are $2 to $3 less, or $13.99 to $15.99 a pound. The Lobster Place, with locations in Chelsea Market and Greenwich Village, is the cheapest of the markets I surveyed, at $7.95 a pound. Act quickly, because, according to Trevor Corson, the author of “The Secret Life of Lobsters”, this situation is probably not going to last much longer.

“The lobster fishermen are victims of their own success,” he said, explaining that because they have managed to make lobster fisheries so sustainable, they have recently had record catches."

Cheers, Wall Street meltdown and sustainable fishing, possibly the strangest bedfellows in producing a lobster surplus.