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Enlarge text I'm going to stick my neck out and make a bold
prediction on the hopes and fortunes of Australia's own Michael Rogers.
Rogers progression points to a podium in the TdF (Getty)
- 26 Comments | Join the discussion
I realise there's four months to go before the start of the 2009 Tour de France, but I've always been one to take a gamble.
This
being the case, I'm going to stick my neck out and make a bold
prediction on the hopes and fortunes of Australia's own Michael Rogers.
I'm tipping Rogers will be the best placed Aussie on the General
Classification - better still I reckon he can possibly go all the way
and win the race!
Big call, I hear you say - but is it really?
Given his early season form the man affectionately called "Dodger" cannot be overlooked as a serious Tour contender.
Sure
there's still a long way to go before the starter's flag is dropped on
the streets of Monaco for the Tour prologue on July 4th, but if Rogers
is going to make a statement on the world cycling stage, it has to be
this year.
He's overcome the health issues of the past 12
months and is simply content with life after the birth of his twin
daughters in September last year.
When Michael was a
non-selection at last year's Grand Tours I asked him at the time
whether he was contemplating an early retirement as a racer to
concentrate on his family life first.
He simply responded in
the words and tone of Arnold Schwarzenegger from a famous Hollywood
blockbuster, "I'll be back." Too right he is.
He collected
gold and silver medals at the Australian Open Road Championships in
January and followed that performance with a top 6 overall finish at
the Tour Down Under.
All this when his only preparation was
on a wind trainer during the cold northern winter months before
arriving in Australia in early January.
He had a brilliant
Tour of California and to climb the podium at the end of a gruelling
eight-day race is confirmation he is improving with every event.
Even
more encouraging is his race programme in the lead-up to the Tour de
France - it doesn't include an appearance in the Giro in May.
Unlike
Lance Armstrong, Ivan Basso, Carlos Sastre and Denis Menchov, to name a
few, Rogers has opted to avoid Italy's national race in a bid to be in
tip-top form for Le Tour.
He feels he can do without the "training" and risk of injury which comes with such an event.
And
with the backing of an impressive Team Columbia-High Road - arguably
the world's best combination currently going around at the moment - he
may well feel this year may be his best opportunity at conquering the
world's most prestigious race.
For years Michael Rogers has shown his value as a talented and tough Grand Tour rider.
I'm
hoping the boy from Canberra will finally crack it for a place in the
history books come July 26th when the Tour de France reaches the finish
line in Paris.
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Comments (26)
Previous 10 |
15 Mar 2009 20:06 AEST
From: USA
--
Hey guys don't count your chickens.... Luis Leon Sanchez is one rider who is improving with every passing year.
15 Mar 2009 10:06 AEST
From: Glen Waverley
--
Mike have you heard of a guy called Cadel Evans? do u think he might be a chance. Cadel now is a better time trialist than rogers. Like in 2007 tour Astana were tipped to rip the race apart but their team crumbled with Vinokourov and Kloden. The team time trial will be a worry for SIlence Lotto but they have got the additions of Dekker and Lang who are great time trialists. Also Cadel be assisted more in the hills with Dekkker and Van den Broek who rode 6th at the Giro (including Sella's positive dope test). Mabye now that Cadel and his team don't have the limelight on them he might be as chance. Rogers won't have the support at Columbia especially with Cavendish now all support will go to him.
15 Mar 2009 10:06 AEST
From: Glen Waverley
--
Mike have you heard of a guy called Cadel Evans? do u think he might be a chance. Cadel now is a better time trialist than rogers. Like in 2007 tour Astana were tipped to rip the race apart but their team crumbled with Vinokourov and Kloden. The team time trial will be a worry for SIlence Lotto but they have got the additions of Dekker and Lang who are great time trialists. Also Cadel be assisted more in the hills with Dekkker and Van den Broek who rode 6th at the Giro (including Sella's positive dope test). Mabye now that Cadel and his team don't have the limelight on them he might be as chance. Rogers won't have the support at Columbia especially with Cavendish now all support will go to him.
14 Mar 2009 14:44 AEST
From: Melbourne
--
After the short piece of vision I have seen on the Cycling Central website, Alberto Contador has made my mind up on who will win the '09 TdF - he will! Forget about Rogers, Evans, Lance and anyone else for that matter - Alerbto is the man to beat. Alberto first and daylight second...
14 Mar 2009 13:58 AEST
From: Sydney
--
Andrew, Rogers was 9th in the 2006 tour while riding as a domestique for Kloden. To get in the top ten as a non-team leader is a pretty good sign. In 2006, he was one of the few giving a decent chase to Floyd's solo breakaway, but was instructed by his team to slow down and wait for Kloden. And when he crashed in 2007 he was climbing awesomely. Anyway we can all have different opinions but i think he's definitely got what it takes.
14 Mar 2009 2:56 AEST
From: Adelaide
--
Andrew, i agree that cadel will find it hard to win this year and his best tour was 2007 when he "won" the TT stage after vino cheated but he didn't choke he just wasn't quite good enough . No shame in that. He is a little bit like Ulrich i reckon ,deisel engine who waits for the TT and hopes for best. Difference between them is cadels team is crap in the mountains . that makes it harder. both times he has lost it has been against super teams. Sorry but i dont agree with the mick rogers comment. When he crashed in 2007 he was looking great with rasmussen and would've taken time on other favourites i reckon. true about not winning a TT but he wont really lose time either. He finished above armstrong,basso,f.schleck,van de velde at the tour of california. they have all finished top 5 in the TDF. i know that is an early race but only now is he finally fit again and that was a good sign i think. Everyone can have an opinion and thats what is good about cycling. You may well be right!! Still think Contador will win though!!
14 Mar 2009 0:37 AEST
From: brisbane
--
Good comments here although it is not suprising to see Mike pushing the Rogers bandwagon to add some spice to the tour. Rogers simply cannot climb consistently with the big boys and would therefore need to tear strips out of the other GC riders in TT. To my knowledge whilst Rogers has one 3 world championships he has never one a TT stage on a grad tour. For these reasons a good result for Rogers would be 5th behind Contador, Basso, Armstrong and Evans. Evans has no chance to win overall. Ben was right to note that his 07 tour was far more impressive. He is over the hill and would need to take massive chunks out of Contador, Basso and Armstrong in the time trials. This is unlikely especially gathering from his recent head to heads with Contador and the big choke out 08 TDF (lets face it - it was a choke). More importantly Evans is not prepared to make the critical decision and put it all in to win an individual stage. If you do not win stages you do not win TDF. Contador will rightly start favourite but ex druggy Basso will certainly hold his own in the mountains. Armstrong is the man however and as he gets further match fit he will deliver. GO LANCE!
12 Mar 2009 19:11 AEST
From: campbelltown nsw
--
if cadel and mike a in the hunt for podium finishes at the TDF i'd like to think that if it comes to working together to beat astana ( many contenders ) then they will have to otherwise astana will just ride away
07 Mar 2009 13:22 AEST
From: Creswick
--
Good, valid points from Rob and Ben. I really appreciate them. Judging by the comments it seems Contador can win the Tour on his own while the likes of Cadel, Rogers and Schleck may need each other after all.
07 Mar 2009 0:23 AEST
From: Adelaide
--
Rob, If Contador takes off on the climbs like i think he will then you may see quite a few of the top GC riders (including Rogers and Cadel) working together to limit the damage from the best climber on the planet. Otherwise i feel they will see him ride away with the title in the mountains. Everyone has to be close because Contador has improved his time trial ability in the last couple of seasons. All makes for a great race though!! Bring it on!!
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