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Enlarge textWhat are the chances of an Astana podium clean sweep at the Tour de France this year?
Astana a good bet to win the Tour de France (Getty)
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What are the chances of an Astana podium clean sweep at the Tour de France this year?
As I look into my crystal ball, and at today's good news, plus announced selections for the great race, I can see such a scenario unfolding.
Check out this squad and tell me it doesn't have the potential to dominate the podium.
Certainties are Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador joined by Andreas Kloden, Levi Leipheimer, Yaroslav Popovych and Haimar Zubeldia.
Soon to be joined by a trio of domestiques drawn from a highly talented group of riders - Jani Brajkovic, Chris Horner, Benjamin Noval, Dmitriy Muravyev, Sergio Paulinho, Gregory Rast and Tomas Vaitkus.
Lance Armstrong himself seems to agree, saying this earlier in January.
"We have five riders that have been in the top five in the tour,
theoretically any of them could be very close (to winning). And I think
more realistically than theoretically, you could perhaps put three guys
on the podium if you did it right. (It would) be exciting for us. Not
exciting for the race. But exciting for us."
Picture this: the Spanish national anthem is being played on the Champs Elysees for the third year in a row.
It's late afternoon on July 26 - the sun is shining and the international crowds line the famous boulevard to honour Alberto Contador as the Tour's new champion.
Standing alongside to his immediate right is Lance Armstrong - to his left stands Levi Leipheimer - both fill the minor placings wearing the aqua and yellow colours of Astana.
Such a scene might seem unrealistic to some, but the more I toss up the idea, the more I convince myself it could happen.
Contador is still rated the world's best pro-cyclist with bookmakers and critics alike.
He'll start the Tour an overwhelming short-priced favourite, currently offering just $1.80 for overall victory by bookies.
Now, that's a skinny price not even the favourite in a Melbourne Cup field of 24 starters enjoys these days.
Who says the 2009 Tour is going to be an open race with odds like that?
By rights Contador
should receive full support from Armstrong, but I feel the jury is
still out to whether the Tour's seven-time winner can bring himself to
guiding his Spanish teammate to another victory.
We could see a situation where US-allegiances come into play - Armstrong leans on Leipheimer and fellow American Chris Horner in a bid to clinch overall victory ahead of Contador.
Would Astana's team director Johan Bruyneel allow such a scenario to eventuate? You be the judge.
Given the events that unfolded in the Dauphine, Contrador may be forced to draw on the support of his compatriots from other teams such as Caisse d'Erpagne, for example, in a bid to stay at the head of the Tour on the final day.
Now, wouldn't that be bizarre? Either way, there's no question Astana will definitely be the team to beat.
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Comments (27)
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25 Jun 2009 14:14 AEST
From: sydney
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does anyone know where i can get the Ride's tdf guide?? thanks in advance. cant wait for the tour. i personally think it will be between andy schelk menchov and condator.
25 Jun 2009 9:19 AEST
From: Adelaide
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I can see contador winning but Armstrong in my view wont make the top 10, look at the giro and there many more classy riders coming into the tdf
24 Jun 2009 23:04 AEST
From: perth
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forget armstrong he won't be top 6... cadel will win on guts, contador 2nd wondering where his support went, menchov 3rd as he will finally work with cadel up them mountains, shleck 4th because of the team support, brother...
23 Jun 2009 20:06 AEST
From: Sydney
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Otis, who was the leader of CSC last year. It wasn't till stage 17 that Sastre stood up and took yellow from his teammate whom the media was beginning to see as the team leader. At no stage in the Tour had CSC indicated that Sastre was the team leader until the bottom of the final climb of stage 17. Phil wasn't sure if Frank Schleck was the leader or if it was Sastre or even potentially Andy Schleck.
23 Jun 2009 18:33 AEST
From: orange
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astana may struggle to win. for one thing, who's their leader, lance or alberto? veery interesting. we may be in for a real revelation as another name gets up. (i have two in mind). but stick with astana if you like them
23 Jun 2009 18:31 AEST
From: Lithgow
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Eddie Merckx won 8 stages on two occasions but so did Charles Pelissier and Freddy Maertens. Regarding all the jerseys, only Merckx did them all in one year, probably an indicator as to why he is called the Cannibal. Got to agree with you Bobo, Merckx failed three doping tests during his career. Might be why he is rather silent regarding doping. Merckx was good, but seriously is he twice as good as the rest, like Bradman was? Then again he was kidney punched by an irritable fan because he won soo often. If he hadn't been asked not to ride in 1973 he'd have won 5 on the trot, but then again Hinault would have done the same if he hadn't been injured. Racing requires a lot of luck, look at Armstrong and his 7, never injured and only minor scraps.
23 Jun 2009 17:45 AEST
From: Bundaberg
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Eddy Merckx may be a living legend, but the more I read of his extraordinary achievements, the more I feel the performance-enhancing substances he used were better than the rest. I feel Contador has raw talent, never seen before in the pro-peloton,
23 Jun 2009 17:25 AEST
From: Newcastle
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Eddie Merxx won Yellow, green and Polka dot in the one year as well as 8 stages. Contador might be good but not that good. I think he is the only person to have won the 5 monuments, albeit not in the same year. And top things off he was world champ as well in a year he won the Giro and Tour. Reminds me of Don Bradman.
23 Jun 2009 17:24 AEST
From: Newcastle
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Eddie Merxx won Yellow, green and Polka dot in the one year as well as 8 stages. Contador might be good but not that good. I think he is the only person to have won the 5 monuments, albeit not in the same year. And top things off he was world champ as well in a year he won the Giro and Tour. Reminds me of Don Bradman.
23 Jun 2009 15:06 AEST
From: Ballina NSW
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A question more than a comment. Has anyone other than Laurent Jalabert won both the green jersey and the polka dot jersey, not in the same year but at all. I remember his early battle with the Tashkent Express, abdul jolo??? alphabet and then in later tours Jalabert making incredible solos rides ahead of the peloton on mountain stages just to be caught before the final climb. With the Jalabert name almost synonymous with "pot belge" its hard to believe it was not assisted. Anyway has anyone else ever done it?
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