Giro at the midpoint, what next?

20 May 2010 | 0:00 - By Matthew Keenan

The only constant in this years Giro d'Italia is change, knowing that, Matthew Keenan bravely attempts to make some some sense out of the chaos.

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Team Cervelo's Xavier Tondo (Getty)

Halfway through the Giro d’Italia and Richie Porte is at the top of the general classification in his first grand tour. Brilliant.

But picking the Tattslotto numbers is easier than predicting what will happen next.

With a disclaimer of how hard this race is to read, here’s a stab at what might, could, possibly happen.

Firstly there is no standout favourite.

Behind Porte the two biggest threats inside the top-10 are David Arroyo (1:42) and Xavier Tondo (3:54).

Based on what we’ve seen so far, here’s my rationale.

Between Porte, Arroyo and Tondo the first mountain-top finish to the Terminillo, on stage eight, showed Tondo to be the strongest of these three.

He attacked the group containing Cadel Evans and Alexandre Vinokourov to finish third and took 46 seconds on Porte.

On the same stage Arroyo lost 26 seconds to Porte.

The other key stage we’ve seen was across the dirt to Montalcino won by Evans. Arroyo was in the group with Evans one minute 30 seconds ahead of Porte. But Tondo lost more than five minutes that day.

Arroyo has the most experience of these three having finished 10th and 11th at the Giro in the past and 13th at the Tour de France in 2007. His team, Caisse d'Epargne, also looks relatively strong.

Tondo is in the form of his life and has Carlos Sastre by his side at Cervelo. I don’t think Carlos can win but the double card trick is sure to come into play.

Another rider in the top-10, Bradley Wiggins, must be ruing the lack of urgency in his chase following the crash on stage three that also affected Evans.

Wiggins loves his music but no doubt can’t stand Cher, yet might have the words “if I could turn back time” ringing in his ears.

Of those expected to be dominating the general classification, Vinokourov (9:58), Evans (11:10), Vincenzo Nibali (11:28) and Ivan Basso (11:49) are a long way from being out of it.

With the mountains and time-trials to come everyone ahead of these guys has the potential to explode and lose huge chunks of time.

Astana and BMC have been decimated, with both teams down to five riders, so Vinokourov and Evans will be left to their own devices. Nothing new for Evans.

And don’t forget that on the only occasion Nibali lost time it was because of a crash, not bad legs.

On that stage Basso waited for Nibali, which indicates he doesn’t have the confidence in himself. If he did he would have stayed with the front group to take care of his own interests.

Marco Pinotti, Stefano Garzelli, Damiano Cunego and Michele Scarponi all still have ambitions for the general classification too. So we haven’t seen the last them either.

There is one guarantee – for one of the pre-race favourites to win they must attack. We are in for a great second half of this year's Giro.

I’m keen to hear your thoughts because really anything can happen.

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24 May 2010 18:08 AEST

Bruno

From: Newcastle

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Looking at the current post stage 15 standing, barring another stuff up arguably only the top 10 can win. Of these, Arroyo , Porte, Sastre, Vino and Gerdmann are losing big chunks on the climbs and they haven't finished. You would also say Nibali and Kiserlivski will sacrifice themselves for Basso now that he is set up as the man to win by Liquigas. That leaves 3 men Basso, Evans (+1.10) and Scarponi (+3.01) as the main protagonists. Bassi is the hot favourite based on the strength in numbers, Evans is arguably the better TT man (interesting to see what time he can take off Basso in stage 16 if any) and Scarponi is the outsider. My heart says Cadel but my head says Basso and discount the rest. Liquigas won't let the likes of Arroyo, Porte, Sastre or Vino spoil their Grand Tour. Evans can win if he gets a little luck and recovers well at least he shouldn't have to give Basso a free ride the day before Zoncolan. Although Cadel lost time to Basso he really only has to watch Basso from now on.

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23 May 2010 15:22 AEST

Glen

From: Melbourne

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Just checked out the maps of the final stages, I think the question will be how many are actually going to finish the race. There is bucket loads of time available to all riders, which makes Cadels 7 minutes look very small indeed.

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23 May 2010 10:31 AEST

cycotic

From: perth

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we shall see who reigns supreme this week.

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23 May 2010 2:04 AEST

Peter

From: Melbourne

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I like seeing Evens race but since he has joined BMC, it's hard to find him. Because his team mates do such a good job of kepping up with him, they block my view.

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23 May 2010 0:55 AEST

cycotic

From: perth

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sick to death of Cadel being a safe rider. he should just go for it. don't sit behind the one's who are slowing you down god damn it!!!

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22 May 2010 5:28 AEST

Pete

From: Melbourne

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Dave from Adelaide. Not all us cycling lovers watch the sport simply for the pushing of pedals. There so much more that SBS screens during the Tour (Gabriel Gate included) that Eurosport doesn't want to touch. I also have Foxtel ,but I must say the commentary team is a shambles and I choose not to watch for that reason. SBS' presentation is brilliant. Eurosport is simply wallpaper.

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21 May 2010 22:30 AEST

Davo

From: Sydney

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With the Giro and Tour of California on at the same time this year and a number of teams attanding both I need to ask the question - has this lessened the quality of the teams riding in both tours? What if Cadel had Hincappie supporting him and bashing the Lampre rider for him? What if Saxobank had a team time trial with Cancellara and Porte in it? While both races have their own exciting points I wonder if the Giro this year has a little less talent in it? I suppose the TDF will have the strongest riders of all the teams in it and possibly a slightly differenet make-up (SaxoBank to include Porte) based on the additional exposure they will get from having ridden one of the two tours one right now?

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21 May 2010 18:59 AEST

Dan

From: NT

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Matt can I have your crystal ball for the lotto numbers and the TDF pleese! and that Lampre bingle (no pun intended) with Cadel this morning go figga the Lampre rider was doing a slow mo for his team and Cadel got jack of it. Fair enough - another tee in the waiting perhaps "Don't touch my rainbow jersey" you jerk. GO CADEL! even the verbal attacks are worth something, and yes he did apologise.

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21 May 2010 18:35 AEST

Craig

From: Kilmore

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Thanks to SBS for allowing us to see at least a highlights package from the Giro. I would love Cadel to win it but fear he may have given some of them a bit too much time. Lets hope Cadel can get another win in one of the mountain stages and get himself back into it.

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21 May 2010 17:50 AEST

Bruce

From: Sydney

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It's great to see the organisers of the Giro still have to have the guts to make insanely difficult days in a modern grand tour given the climate of anti-doping. It makes for sensational racing. As for the Tour route this year, don't expect any of the stages to offer as much excitement- certainly no 262km classic-esque showdowns over hilly terrain or epic mountain stages. The Tour organisers cannot match what the Giro has. Look at what is in stall for the second half of the Giro- Zoncolan...Plan de Corones...Mortirolo...Gavia. To all fellow cycling fans, enjoy what promises to be the most exciting week of racing this year.

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