TdF Files: Defying logic

22 July 2011 | 0:00 - By Anthony Tan

It would be rash to write off Cadel Evans’ chances of winning this year’s Tour de France, even if Andy Schleck’s performance Thursday almost defied belief, writes Anthony Tan from Galibier Serre-Chevalier.

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Cadel Evans (L) and Thomas Voeckler ride to Galibier (Getty)

They really rode fast at the front; I don’t quite understand how they made so much time When Schleck the Younger made his bid for victory with some 60 kilometres to go on the Col d’Izoard, did Cadel Evans or any of the other favourites make a mistake?

No – after two-and-a-half week’s mediocrity, no-one could predict that Andy Schleck would last as long and as strong as he did.

And unlike those on other teams, Leopard-Trek dished out a card their adversaries could not afford to play, for only the team from Luxembourg had two bona fide contenders-in-waiting.

“I was sitting right behind [Andy Schleck], watching him getting ready to attack,” said Evans at the top of the Galibier Thursday, after singlehandedly bringing himself back into contention with a sterling performance in the final 10 kilometres of the 200.5km Alpine slog.

“I was ready, but I was more looking at the time gaps and the numbers. I can’t control an attack 30K [or more] out.

“And if Andy comes back, Fränk's probably going to go away. With Andy away, there’s only one I have to control in the final. Just on a numbers basis, 20-30k block-headwind, up a valley… we are 40 [strong] with one to nine guys riding at the front, and they are four riding at the front.

“They really rode fast at the front,” he said. “I don’t quite understand how they made so much time.”

Furthermore, Evans had no idea the maillot jaune of Thomas Voeckler, or Damiano Cunego, or Ivan Basso, or Alberto Contador, or Samuel Sanchez – the latter pair clearly on a bad day – would be unable to contribute to the chase.

I say unable because if they could and chose not to, then I would immediately label them a bunch of buffoons, for they all had as much to lose as him.

Interestingly, Evans singled out one team he felt should have contributed but didn’t.

“I had to put it on the line,” said the BMC leader, “because it was my tour to win and mine to lose. It’s also a bit bizarre when Voeckler’s team stops riding and he has the yellow jersey.

“They’ve ridden a lot all week, but he still had a team-mate in the end and just sort of looked at me to do the work, but I’m alone, too.”

                                                            * * *

Whatever the case, this Tour de France grows ever the more beguiling.

I would say at this point, and with Friday’s stage to Alpe d’Huez looming, there are only four riders left capable of winning, though more likely three; those being the Schlecks and Evans.

Unless, of course, Cunego, Basso, Samuel Sanchez or Contador stage the impossible and do what Andy Schleck did today – but even more daring. However, the short, intense stage we have on paper – just 109.5km long including 42.4km of climbing – does not really lend itself to such a move, especially given the all-important Grenoble time trial on Saturday, which could see any gains reversed if one goes too deep.

Clearly, if Schleck the Elder is to win this year, he must attack à la Carlos Sastre at the 2008 Tour. And if Evans is to win this year, then he must keep his deficit to either of the Schlecks to around two minutes – though preferably one-and-a-half minutes or less – before the Saturday’s 42.5km race against the clock.

“[The time trial] was always going to be crucial,” said Evans, “but as long as we are within one or two minutes of each other… [It is] such a hard time trial, there can be big gaps if you arrive there a little less fatigued than those around you.”

And if Voeckler is to win this year, well, I think I’ll fall off my chair.

His body language and demeanour suggest he’s nine-tenths cooked. But if he somehow manages to keep the maillot jaune coming into the final time trial, the power of the golden fleece he’s been wearing the past nine stages may just make the impossible, possible.

Follow Anthony on Twitter: @anthony_tan

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26 Jul 2011 16:26 AEST

Tony Gibbons

From: Largs Bay

Great win! The only sour note was Tina Arena singing the national anthem as though it was a pop song and destroying the occasion. Evans and the Schelk brothers did not look too impressed. She has a nice enough voice but national anthems are sung straight with dignity.

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25 Jul 2011 17:17 AEST

Terry

From: Melbourne

Brendan - brother, do feel humbled - ok ??? Cadel's true grit was astonishing in the end - I always said I wanted him to win,and was barracking as loudly as you, I am sure. Whether you agree or not, I am sure that we will see Cadel attack more, and make this more of the weaponry he employs now that the terrible 'follower' shackle and burden has been completely removed. His effort and Kieran's Perkins second 1500 metre gold were the best I can recall at the moment

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24 Jul 2011 21:05 AEST

JayCee

From: SWR

Sucked in! Don't choke on your humble pie!

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24 Jul 2011 12:19 AEST

Dianne Hockey

From: Twin Waters qld

Bloody fantastic - what a great effort - congratulations on your wonderful courageous win - we are so proud of you!

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24 Jul 2011 12:18 AEST

Doratheexplorer

From: Sydney

Terry Meehan, what a clear lack of underdstanding you have. Havent seen any more posts from you. You must be busy eating humble pie. You know very little about cycling and probably should find another sport.

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24 Jul 2011 10:20 AEST

Adam Fisher

From: Opossum Bay

I don't think ToVo has 'enhanced' his abilities - if anything the French are the most vociferous anti drugs campaigners there are. They are the main reason that anti drugs progress has been made. Instead i think a 'clean' tour has brought the 'elite' back to the field. Makes you wonder whether the French could have been more successful in the Tour if this had been achieved earlier. They must look at this in some respects in the way we used to look at Chinese swimmers. Chapeau to the French!

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24 Jul 2011 2:20 AEST

John Fergus

From: Canberra

Well it wasn't Wimbledon, just le tour, but that will do.

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24 Jul 2011 2:03 AEST

CadelforPM

From: Heaven

Terry, here I've just made you the world's largest humble pie. Eat away! For all you criticising Cadel for following, not responding to attacks etc... what race were you watching? He won a stage and very nearly two. Picked his moments to put time on guys like Contador and Schleck. And used his team and those around him until he alone was his best chance of pulling the leaders back. Moves by Contador and Andy to attack from so far out just reeked of desperation, Cadel had the legs in the end!

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24 Jul 2011 1:10 AEST

Brendan

From: Blackburn

Brides maid hey Terry Meehan............now you are a dill!

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23 Jul 2011 2:57 AEST

Brendan

From: Blackburn

Terry Meehan you dill. You obviously have no idea of what it requires to compete on a grand tour scale. There's no denying that Schleck is an amazing athlete but to say that Cadel has a losers mentality just proves what I wrote in my opening line. Hopefully come the early hours of Sunday morning you are eating your own words. If Cadel doesn't win in the TT he has still ridden an amazing tour and if anything his solo chases in the alps prove he has what it takes.

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