Assessing Wiggins vs Evans

08 June 2012 | 0:00 - By Matthew Keenan

The individual time trial at the Criterium du Dauphine confirmed what has been evident all season. Bradley Wiggins is flying.

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Experience .... Evans has it over Wiggins, but could 2012 be the Briton's year at the Tour de France? (Getty Images)

In making Tour de France predictions, the one argument that keeps popping up about the form of Wiggins is that he’s too good too soon. I’m not buying it. He has spent his whole career hitting his targets.

When the Olympics were his number one objective he won gold medals. Three of them. When he first targeted a top 10 at the Tour de France, in 2009, he finished fourth.

Coming into the Dauphine he said he wouldn’t hold anything back and that the time trial was the most important stage. He won it convincingly.

But post stage, after his brief stint warming down on the home trainer, he also showed his experience by expressing caution in assessing his win.

On French television the Briton said: “Cadel Evans is a champion, his level will go up for the Tour de France. For now I’m concentrating on the Dauphine.”

The deficit in the time trial shouldn’t be a great concern for Evans. Last year in the Dauphine the Australian lost 1 minute 09 seconds to Wiggins over 42.5km, this time it was 1 minute 43 seconds across 53.5km.

As Wiggins appears to be in better form than this time last year it can be argued that Evans is also in better shape than 12 months ago.

But the most telling factor coming out of the individual time trial was the strength of the Sky team.

Sky had five riders in the top 20, which didn’t including Australian Richie Porte who was 30th.

BMC had two. Evans was seventh and Tejay Van Garderen 13th. The next best was, the almost 39 year old, George Hincapie in 34th.

Evans continues to express complete confidence in his team, and it has the advantage of knowing it can support a Tour de France winner.

Yet for all the arguments in favour of BMC it’s impossible to ignore what appears to be Sky’s superior firepower.

With such depth Sky will be able to control the Tour de France more than any other team and, as much as it can, ride it on Wiggins’s terms.

Andy Schleck returning to his normal July form and going on the attack in the mountains could be just what Evans needs.

As Wiggins looks set to win the Dauphine, a statistic working in favour of Evans is that in the past 30 years, only three riders have won the Dauphine and the Tour in the same year.

Whichever way the pre-race form is analysed, it’s clear that to defend his crown against the strength of Sky and Wiggins, Evans, as he did on Stage 1 at the Dauphine, will need to use every trick at his disposal.

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14 May 2013 17:39 AEST

R.Pike

From: Mid north coast

Really enjoying your commentary with Scot McGory of the Giro - Congratulations!

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25 Jun 2012 10:53 AEST

Peter

From: Canberra

Yes, Evans beat Contador last year, but that was after Contador had won the Giro (very energy sapping) AND after he was accused of doping, so - if he was doping - he may have stopped doping for the Tour. So his form may have been merely human, rather than doped up super-hero form. Just speculation of course.

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14 Jun 2012 17:37 AEST

bilgerat

From:

You're a good commentator Matt, I don't always agree with you but you know your stuff. When are SBS going to team you up with someone decent and let you do the TdF? It would be good to watch the Tour with the sound on for a change.

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13 Jun 2012 15:16 AEST

Andrew

From: Melbourne

Paul, look at the Dauphine. Evans wasn't at his best at the Dauphine during this year's edition or last year's edition. The form before the Dauphine is irrelevant on whether one can win the Tour or not. There is over 60 days between Romandie and the Tour where form and training changes dramatically. You need to analyse things more closely.

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12 Jun 2012 23:47 AEST

Scott

From: Adelaide

Wiggins just has to be within one minute or so of Evans by the penultimate stage. It's that simple. If he can do that he will win. Personally I believe Evans has another level in the tank this year. The monkey's off his back, he has nothing to prove whereas wiggins has gotta prove himself on the biggest cycling stage of all.

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11 Jun 2012 23:28 AEST

wundabus

From: Bairnsdale Vic

Its a long way to Paris so let's not get our knickers in a knot. Lots of potential riders weren't in the Dauphine but however you look at it, it will be one heck of a TDF - can't wait.

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11 Jun 2012 16:26 AEST

Mike (Brighton)

From:

Sky will also accomodate Cav which means less fresh riders for Wiggins & more likelihood of injury/crashes in doing so. BMC have one focus only - delivering Evans to the finish line in the yellow jersey. There will also be far more pure climbers, more GC contenders & stronger teams at TDF which may mean that Sky are not able to ride a relentless steady pace like at they did at Dauphnie. Wiggins & Sky are strong, but Evans & BMC already have the experience of one TDF win & seem to be on track.

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11 Jun 2012 16:14 AEST

Mike (Brighton)

From:

Luke agree Pinotti.....I'm hoping he gets on the team. He's solid all round mountains, TT and bike handling skills plus he's got a cool head and is a team player. Gilbert's form to date is not convincing but he does ride well with Cadel and would commit to him and BMC team.

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11 Jun 2012 15:42 AEST

Allez Cadel

From: Macksvile

Agreed Wiggins seems to be in better form than he was this stage last year, when Evans finished 2nd 1'26" behind him. This year Evans finished 3rd, but again 1'26" behind Wiggins. At the time Wiggins crashed out of Le Tour 2011, Evans was 10" in front of him. Evans now knows he can win Le Tour. Wiggins still has the demons of doubt to deal with. That was apparent in the post-stage interviews. I think the odds favour Evans for 2012.

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11 Jun 2012 0:06 AEST

Gaz

From: Perth

thank you mat-k for your informative,interesting and entertaining coverage of the dauphine,beats the head aches we had to put up with the Giro,sbs dont be a(ch.one)and supprress us to oversease jibbajabba

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