Hidden consequences

08 July 2012 | 17:00 - By Al Hinds

There was an element of déjà vu in Team Sky's performance on the Planche des Belles Filles climb of Stage 7 of the Tour de France, with a near carbon-copy scenario playing out on the Col du Joux Plane in last month's Criterium du Dauphine.

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With the obvious differences in the lengths of the climbs, the size and qualities of the field, you still can't help but draw parallels. The only marked change in the way Team Sky rode the stage was in having Michael Rogers in front, rather than behind compatriot Richie Porte.

The same devastating attrition as at the Criterium du Dauphine followed, and the same result, Bradley Wiggins in yellow.

Admittedly, it wasn't something I'd predicted ahead of the stage, nor for that matter, BMC and Team Sky's management.

Bradley Wiggins himself noted that with two kilometres to go he actually had to yell at Chris Froome to back the pace off because the damage had already been done.

"The plan was to just ride a good solid tempo, keep our eyes on Cadel and take the jersey at the finish. I never realised, or thought the field would be so decimated the way it was at the finish."

John Lelangue, BMC's sporting director at the Tour made a similar call before the stage citing it as unusual for the first day in the mountains to be decisive in the battle for yellow.

"The climb is too short," said Lelangue. "It's a tough, hard slog, but I don't think any of the top guys will be distanced."

So what happened exactly? For only four riders to get to the top together; Vincenzo Nibali, Cadel Evans, Chris Froome and Wiggins, and some of the time gaps to be considerable came as a major shock.

With the exception of Jurgen van den Broeck who punctured, Samuel Sanchez surprisingly floundered, RadioShack-Nissan looked lost, Menchov cracked, and Levi Leipheimer was below par.

In two days the list of possible contenders slimmed from a handful to just three riders, arguably two.

That call may be premature, but with the Arc-et-Senans time trial only likely to favour the top three, it's hard to see a way back for the also-rans.

The Stage 6 crash that ended Ryder Hesjedal and Tom Danielson's campaigns, sliced a huge chunk of time out of Pierre Rolland, Frank Schleck, Robert Gesink, Alejandro Valverde and Juan Jose Cobo, may well be now looked back on as the decisive day of this year's race.

The consequence of the 'Metz crash' as it is being dubbed, is a clear and dramatic change in the race dynamic. The Tour is suddenly looking all the more like the Criterium du Dauphine, with a very select few light years ahead of the rest.

This has big implications for the tactics that will play out over the next week. Where once controlling the peloton would have seemed an impossible task for Sky - the prospect of keeping Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali alone in check seems hardly that.

Team Sky will play its hand conservatively, but Nibali and Evans can ill-afford to do the same. Exciting racing looms.

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10 Jul 2012 10:32 AEST

Anthony L

From: Canberra

Don't forget Cadel was 2'26" behind Thomas V on the same stage last year, with no other BMC rider in the top 50. I am sure Cadel and BMC are quietly pleased with their position in 2012. Great website SBS!

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09 Jul 2012 22:39 AEST

blitzen

From:

I don't think Menchov can really be said to have cracked, he is still in reach of Wiggins. I think it will be interesting to see what will happen to Wiggins on the descents in the bigger Mountain stages. You will have Van Den Broek and Menchov looking to make up time along with Cadel and Nibali all whom can descend better than Wiggins.

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09 Jul 2012 19:44 AEST

Andrew

From: Broadford

Chris, that's exactly my point. The more Wiggins gets pushed in the mountains, the more likely Cadel will beat him in the final time trial. Frank and Nibali are good, but they aren't of the calibre of Andy and Alberto. They also can't time trial to Cadel/Wiggins calibre. As we saw last night, Sky aren't as good as everyone was saying. It's only going to get tougher for them as well. I think it's all set up for Cadel, he just has to show that he's got the legs like last year!

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09 Jul 2012 17:00 AEST

Sam

From: Perth

?????????????????????

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09 Jul 2012 14:22 AEST

Chris

From:

Andrew your are right BUT Frank???? Nibali???? AS for time trails All Wiggins big gains where as the start of the races on after big moutain stages Thoughs???? Cadel last year after two big chases rode Like 1 to 2 mins better than earlier in the year. Can Wiggins or Sky keep him up there????

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09 Jul 2012 9:43 AEST

Adam

From:

On top of that, don't forget that Evans doesn't (usually) slow down as the 3 week races progress. He gets stronger. Wiggins doesn't. He's not as consistent over long stage races. I think time is on Evans' side. The final time trial may yet throw up some surprises - not necessarily a Wiggins fait accompli.

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09 Jul 2012 4:58 AEST

Andrew

From: Prague

It might just be the nature of the climbs: Lelangue said that the BMC climbers were more suited to the longer climbs. It might be that CE will be alone in the mountains -- again, but that's nothing new. The time trial tomorrow will tell us how much time CE needs to pull back in the mountains to win. I think./hope that CE and BW will be be fairly evenly matched and tip CE for the second one, but soon enough we'll know about the first ITT!

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09 Jul 2012 2:23 AEST

Mike (Brighton)

From:

Steve...visit BMC web page. According to Lelangue at BMC, the strategy was for "Tejay to sacrafice himself in the flatter section before the two last kilometers...so we can say it's been a successful operation."

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09 Jul 2012 2:13 AEST

rusty

From:

Post stage 8, Sky didn't look so strong. When van Den Broek, Nibali and Cadel jumped, Most of SKY fell behind. THere were more Radioshack there at the end than SKY and TJ was there as well. Funny how people still underestimate Evans, when he has a 1st, two 2nd's and a 4th in tdf. and has the knowledge that he can, and has, won it. Without support. Wiggles only has a 4th.

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08 Jul 2012 21:55 AEST

Andrew

From: Broadford

My perspective on the results of stage 7; 1. There is no rider that can consistently hurt Cadel like Contador or Andy have in the past with accelerations on HC or Cat 1 climbs in the race this year. 2. Cadel doesn't need help from BMC team mates when he has Sky riding tempo - remember, Cadel can ride tempo better than anyone else - its the accelerations that hurt him. Sky will play into Cadels strengths - Wiggins only hope is the time trials. Cadel needs to hurt Wiggins in the mountains!

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