This year’s US election is shaping up to be a close race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
While the pundits and polls make their predictions, Dateline turns to a man who’s correctly predicted the winner of every election since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Yalda Hakim interviews political expert Allan Lichtman about the special formula he uses to predict the winner.
He assesses the current presidency on 13 key points from the economy to foreign policy. If it fails on six or more, Lichtman predicts the government will change.
So how is Barack Obama doing? And who does he think will win this time?
Also in this program, Aaron Thomas reports from the swing state of North Carolina, where Obama’s support of gay marriage has polarised the views of his grassroots black supporters.
WATCH - Click to see Yalda's interview.
WHAT IS LICHTMAN'S FORMULA? - Allan Lichtman uses what he calls 13 'keys to the White House', assessing the current government on how it's doing, to predict who'll win each election. Read a US News article on his current assessment and how it works.
AMERICA DECIDES - Follow SBS World News Australia's comprehensive coverage of the US elections, including live streaming of each of the Presidential debates.
ELECTION SPECIAL - Dateline will be presenting an election special from the United States on the day of the vote, Tuesday 6th November, at 9.30pm on SBS ONE.
Photo (election debate): Getty
On air: 9th October 2012