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Dead Certain |
Tuesday, 9 Sep 08
RE: Property always goes up by Sunshine from Sydney
Sunshine, you simply must be one of the property investors for whom acknowledging the reality that all booms eventually bust is unthinkable.
When questioned on the property boom last year on the national news, the former treasurer Peter Costello himself stated that "all booms bust".
+ 115 agree
- 24 disagree
sunshine and lollypops
eat the pudding
surely peter costello said this with a smirk?
the proof is in the pudding, and how sweet & delicious it is!!
the next boom is about to take off, so grab a spoon & join us!
+ 5 agree
- 0 disagree
from Riccarton, Christchurch
Bursting the Bubble
Regrettably, my comments that Australia will need to get on quickly to start supplying $140,000 - $160,000 houses on the fringes - if it wishes to avoid the mistakes of NZ, California and the UK - were edited out.
Australia is currently buiklding 145,000 units a year and is underbuilding by around 60,000. If it does not start supplying affordable housing fast - it will collase to the NZ level of 80,000, the California level of 40,000 or the dusasterous British one of 30,000 units.
+ 0 agree
- 31 disagree
Modelling on house price movements
I have published modelling on house price movements in Australia (www.geocities.com/homes4aussies). Modelling suggests a 30% decline over the next 3 years. What happens then is dependent on government policy - especially whether the investor tax rorts stay. I would urge all younger Australians to get active on this issue - if we don't stand up and ensure that our concerns are taken into the mix by politicians, policy will continue to favour the more politically engaged baby boomer generation.
+ 73 agree
This is the New Paradigm
House prices will keep rising until we build enough houses to soak up the huge pent up demand. Demand far outstrips supply. Our population growth of 1.6% pa is 2x the US growth and 3x the UK growth! Rents are skyrocketing and vacancy rates are at record lows. With more interest rate cuts on the way, tax cuts, lower fuel costs and improving sentiment, property values are only going one way... UP! Lock in those LOCs and get ready for the mother of all property booms, beginning in Sydney 2010-2011.
+ 140 agree
- 6215 disagree
This is the New Paradigm - Same as the old Paradigm
House prices will keep falling until they are affordable by historical standards. Pent up demand is a made up word. Our population growth will have no consequence to falling prices as seen in the US and UK. Rents will normalize and vacancy rates are at record highs, but not reported. With more interest rate cuts on the way it wont make any difference. Tax cuts will be eaten by inflation, lower fuel costs will be eaten up by falling dollar. Property values are only going one way... DOWN!
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- 2 disagree
from vic sth west
The effects of Howards wonderful economy - joke - will be felt for years to come .A man that allows supermarket take overs to be ruled and monopolized , alone the worst thing you could do for cost of living .
A gov actually encouraging greed in all sectors and favoring the wealthy in the housing market with outrages tax benefits and allowing business and prices in 'everything' to do what they want.
We get the boot - they get to claim losses on tax and actually make money.
+ 228 agree
- 48 disagree
House price bubble
Congratulations to the Insight team on documenting the slow awakening of the Australian speculator.
More discussion on the house price bubble can be found here: http://bubblepedia.net.au including a wiki containing referenced data on overbuilding during the bubble and the crazy predictions of "experts", empty houses galleries, spreadsheets and news links.
Steve Keen hit the nail on the head - savers who invest prefer to rent. home ownership at these prices is crazy.
+ 1781 agree
- 393 disagree
Homes for People not Prtofit
House prices must fall back to levels that reflect what can be earned off it, not what speculators can con others to pay. Read http://www.earthsharing.org.au/2008/09/01/sales-plummet-suprise-suprise/#more-380
Only 12% of money borrowed for housing was spent on new construction. http://www.prosper.org.au/2008/02/18/investors-housing-splurge/ . Land banking delivers the free lunch of capital gains, for which tax funded infrastructure fillips the gains for some. Share these community funded gains!
from Mount Isa
house prices in city vs the bush
Whatever happened to Australia and Australians? Who in their right mind will consider paying over $500,000 for a house in a capital city, unless they earn well above the average wage?
Here is a realistic solution.
Wake up to yourselves Australia -
get the hell out of the city and move to the bush towns. In most cases, you will find town powered and watered land for less than $20,000. Buy and build. Get a job - they will welcome you in the bush. Get your life under your control.
Steve Keen's Blog
If you're interested in a more lengthy and detailed version of what economist Steve Keen was saying, you can visit his blog and read about his work (debt vs GDP) or even listen to some podcasts he has created:
I'm not sure if sbs will allow me to post a link, in case that didn't work just google "steve keen" or "debtwatch".
+ 91 agree
property always goes up
we have massive immigration, our population is booming, there's jobs for all, cheap loans, rising rents and huge housing demand.
and - property always goes up! this is a well known fact. nothing will stop it. look at the fundamentals people!
get in while you can, or you'll be left renting a cardbox box, snacking on its not-so-delicious edges for sustenance.
+ 254 agree
- 3036 disagree
Jules, how many property investors do you think there are in relation to home owners?
Home owners is where the majority of the demand stems from. They are the one responsible for driving the housing prices up.
+ 21 agree
- 50 disagree
Phase out Negative Gearing
Investors, the protected species
WRONG. Investors are driving prices. See main point (22) of RBA Executive Summary: http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/SubmissionsToParliamentaryCommittees/productivity_commission_first_home_ownership.pdf
Thanks to a regressive tax system investors are walking all over home buyers. Sorry.
Australia is the 7th least populated country in the world
Australia is the 7th least populated country in the world, have a look here:
Yet its housing is one of the most expensive in the world have a look here:
$400K buys you a very decent house anywhere in the developed world, but here it stretches to an old house in Auburn...
The banks gave too much credit to naive punters, and now the banks will have the problems they deserve.
+ 599 agree
Govt is Transparent
Regressive tax mentality
Agreed. All a part of the govt plan to disenfranchise a whole next generation. Labor and Liberals, spokesmen for the RE LOBBY. What a sham.
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