Rudd cuts 'will work if others follow'

17 Dec 2008, 3:18 pm   -   Source: AAP
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Climate stabilisation can be achieved provided every nation on Earth adopts Australia's five per cent carbon emissions reduction target, an expert says.

Climate stabilisation can be achieved provided every nation on Earth adopts Australia's five per cent carbon emissions reduction target, a leading climate change expert says.

But a failure to act, causing a 3.0 degrees celsius rise in global temperatures, would "almost certainly" mean the loss of natural icons such as the Great Barrier Reef, Global Carbon Project chairman Michael Raupach has warned.

Speaking after the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) released its annual statement on the global climate, Dr Raupach said the five per cent target announced by the federal government on Monday was "challenging".

The critical factor, he said, would be the different targets adopted by different countries.

"Emissions are increasing faster or as fast as the highest estimates that were made between eight and 10 years ago," Dr Raupach said.

"Australians' emissions have been growing about two per cent per year from 2000. Our target is indeed challenging.

"The implications of that target for global emissions are that a five per cent global emissions reduction by 2020 is consistent with climate stabilisation, provided every nation on Earth can meet the target.

"But the issue that has to be confronted is that of differentiation of targets between developed and developing nations."

According to the WMO statement, parts of Australia endured some of their driest and hottest years on record this year, and 2008 would likely go down as the planet's 10th warmest year on record.

Climate extremes, including floods, persistent droughts, snow storms and heatwaves, were recorded in many parts of the world, while Arctic Sea ice dropped to its second-lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979.

Similarly, regions such as southern Australia experienced long periods of scorching temperatures, with Adelaide suffering through 15 consecutive days of maximum temperatures above 35 degrees, its longest-running heatwave on record, while Victoria had its ninth driest year since records began, the WMO noted.

Dr Raupach said that while carbon dioxide accounted for two-thirds of both global and Australian emissions, natural mitigating factors were being outpaced.

"The natural sinks that are absorbing part of our total emissions worldwide of CO2 are not quite keeping pace with these rapidly rising emissions at the moment," he said.

If emissions reduction targets were applied globally, it would result in stabilisation according to current best estimates of warming of between 1.5 and 3.0 degrees, he added.

"Whether that represents dangerous climate change is another question," he said.

"It's very likely that 3.0 degrees would be associated with shifts in rainfall patterns.

"We would, in a three-degree world, almost certainly lose the Great Barrier Reef, if not because of the temperature rise then simply because of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere dissolving in the ocean, making that ocean more acidic.

"If targets aren't met over the next five to 10 or 15 years, the longer term outlook is that if we don't meet longer term targets then our risks of entering that 3.0 degree territory with all the associated risks amplify progressively."

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