Crime tipped to rise as financial crisis hits

National security briefing notes released by the Australian Homeland Security Research Centre forecast an increase in violence, property crime, burglary, robbery and theft as the economic outlook deteriorates.

"The conventional wisdom is that a decline in the economy leads to an increase in both property crime and violent crime," Athol Yates, executive director of the Australian Homeland Security Research Centre, says in the report.

Jobless 'turning to crime'

The briefing notes, entitled Recession Impacts on the Security Industry and Crime, say the causes are likely to be unemployed people turning to criminal behaviour to obtain money and people becoming more willing to buy stolen goods resulting in more thefts to meet demand.

"What is known about crime and the economy is that, as a generalisation, as unemployment increases it coincides with a small average increase in burglaries, homicide, robbery and theft," the briefing notes say.

"In some locations it coincides with a large increase but in other locations there may be a decline."

Shoplifting also increases due to financial stress.

Domestic violence 'to spike'

"As stress at work and home increases due to financial concerns, domestic and random violence increases."

Demographic factors played a "huge role in criminal behaviour", the briefing notes say.

"A large proportion of crimes are committed by young males so an increase in young males may lead to an increase in crime.

"A recession can change demographics by creating locations of poverty and increasing the number of unemployed young males at home during the day."

The report examined "criminal hot spots" which experience high levels of crime where "high-rate offenders" were often found.

Policing vital

"These offenders are typically responsible for a large proportion of certain crimes and they normally undertake their
activities relatively close to their homes."

The notes say most burglaries committed by "high-rate" criminals occur within 1.5 to 3km of their home and along a route they know well.

"A recession may change the location, number and freedom of these high rate offenders, for example, by reducing police resources to target these criminals - which can result in a significant increase in the rates of certain crimes in certain areas."

Crime rates could change if economic circumstances resulted in more people being home during the day, it said.