Can Cadel Evans win the Tour de France?

ArticleData Array ( [Article] => Array ( [article_id] => 1044062 [headline] => Can Cadel Evans win the Tour de France? [abstract] => As Cadel Evans looks to win the world's toughest cycling race, Roger Vaughan asks has his moment passed?
[keywords] => Tour de France, Cadel, Cadel Evans, cycling, Silence-Lotto [content] =>

Once again, Cadel Evans is showing emphatically he has the natural ability to win the Tour de France.

But whether the Australian cycling star has the crucial mixture of strong temperament, good luck, team strength and the right circumstances from July 4-26 is another matter entirely.

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Only three days out from the race start in Monaco, Silence-Lotto team-mate Thomas Dekker was thrown off the Tour squad for doping.

Given Evans' well-documented problems with team support and his determination to have a calm preparation this year, the Dekker suspension is a multi-dimensional disaster.

Indeed, well before this bombshell, there was a nagging sense that Evans' chance might have passed to become the first Australian Tour winner.

The 32-year-old was runner-up to Alberto Contador in the 2007 Tour by only 23 seconds.

Last year, he was second again to another Spaniard, Carlos Sastre, by 58 seconds.

That's less than a minute per Tour after three weeks and about 3500km of racing.

Last month Evans showed perfect pre-Tour form by finishing runner-up at the Dauphine Libere, always a key lead-up race, as he has done for the last two years.

He excelled in the two time trials at the Dauphine and might have won the overall title, but for an unofficial alliance between race champion Alejandro Valverde and his compatriot Contador.

Physically, Evans was built for the Tour - Australian cycling coach Dave Sanders likens the 32-year-old's physiology to a diesel engine.

It is also notable that Evans actually suffers on the big mountain climbs.

The drug test results and cycling's rumour mill add further credibility to Evans' strong anti-doping views.

But the Australian has big challenges elsewhere.

Tactical challenges

The main knock on Evans' racing style is that he lacks tactical aggression.

There are also concerns about his ability to handle pressure - his outbursts during last year's Tour are popular snippets on YouTube.

True, Evans was trying to cope with nasty injuries from a mid-Tour crash that nearly put him out of the race. And even his staunchest admirers concede he is a unique personality.

But mayhem is the essence of the Tour de France.

This year's field is packed with potential winners, a double-edged sword for the Australian.

While the serious challenges will come from everywhere, Evans might have less of the limelight and this would not bother him one little bit.

There are four previous champions in Sastre, Contador, fellow Spaniard Oscar Pereiro and seven-time champion Lance Armstrong, while Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Kloden have finished on the podium as well.

Four of those - Contador, Armstrong, Leipheimer and Kloden - are all on the Astana squad and one of the themes of this year's Tour will be how team boss Johann Bruyneel manages his talent.

Armstrong, especially, is not noted for gladly playing second fiddle to anyone.

An unexpected boost for Evans has come from Australian team-mate Matt Lloyd, who suffered serious back injuries in a race crash earlier this season.

Lloyd not only recovered from those wounds, but shot into Silence-Lotto's team and a Tour debut with a stunning ride at the Dauphine.

"He really proved he's a very worthy rider of the Tour ... it's been a really pleasant surprise, actually," Evans said.   

"He's at a level where he can really make a difference at the Tour."

Evans and Lloyd are among six, maybe seven Australian starters this year.

A ruling will decide whether Australia's Allan Davis or Belgian Tom Boonen will ride for Quick Step - the last Tour slot to be decided.

There's also in-form German Heinrich Haussler, who was born in Australia and intends to transfer soon to an Australian racing licence.

Simon Gerrans was a shock omission from Sastre's Cervelo team for the Tour, but Brett Lancaster is in the final nine.

Former top-10 finisher Michael Rogers and Mark Renshaw will ride for Columbia-HTC and the legendary Stuart O'Grady will support the Schleck brothers in the Saxo Bank team.

But the Australian focus will be on Evans, who is being careful these days not to be all things to all people in the eye of the Tour storm.

"My first coach Damien Grundy said a line which I will never forget, and it's especially important at the Tour - `you can't keep everyone happy all of the time and it's dangerous to try'," Evans said.

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[content] =>

Dutch cyclist Thomas Dekker has been ruled out of the Tour de France three days before the start after testing positive for the banned blood-booster EPO, his Silence team announced Wednesday.
  
The sample was originally taken on December 24, 2007, but Silence said that new procedures introduced since then allowed for further tests which revealed a positive reading for EPO.

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Tour de France on SBS

World cycling's governing body the UCI said it had also taken into account elements of Dekker's blood profile in his biological passport in 2008 and 2009 to order disciplinary proceedings on suspicion of doping.
  
Dekker, scheduled to help two-time Tour de France runner-up Cadel Evans of Australia in the hillier stages of this year's race, now faces suspension from his team and a likely ban.
  
Silence said on their internet site that the 24-year-old fell victim to the vigilance of the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA), who had called for further testing of a sample taken, randomly, from him on Christmas Eve two years ago.
  
"He found out on Wednesday morning that fresh analysis, carried out in May at the behest of WADA, on urine samples from a random doping control had turned up positive for EPO," the team reported.
  
"The first tests had turned up negative but the samples were kept for retroactive testing so that newer forms of EPO could be detected with the latest detection methods."
  
At the time the samples were taken Dekker competed for the Rabobank team, whose leader, Denis Menchov, is a yellow jersey contender this year.
  
The International Cycling Union said in a statement that it had "instructed the Monegasque Cycling Federation, to which Mr Dekker is affiliated, to open disciplinary proceedings on this matter."
  
"The UCI's request is based on two elements of evidence collected within the biological passport programme: Mr Dekker's haematological profile and a laboratory report indicating the detection of recombinant EPO (Dynepo) in a urine sample.
  
"According to a panel of scientific experts, the haematological profile established from blood samples collected from Mr Dekker in 2008 and 2009 demonstrates convincing evidence of the use of the prohibited method of enhancement of oxygen transfer."
  
It was that suspicion of blood doping that prompted the UCI to have new tests on Dekker's urine sample from December 2007, that came out positive for EPO.
  
It is not the first time the Dutchman who won the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race in 2006 and the Tour of Lombardy in 2007 has been embroiled in controversy.
  
In August last year it was reported that he was not selected for the Tour de France because of abnormally high blood parameters, an indication, though not proof, that blood manipulation has taken place.
  
Dekker will now be replaced by Briton Charles Wegelius, according to team manager Marc Sergeant.
  
"I'm very disappointed. It happened when he was not competing for Silence and was at Rabobank, but still that doesn't make the news any less welcome," said Sergeant.
  
Dekker has also collaborated in the past with Italian trainer Michele Ferrari, who has been controversially linked with administering EPO since the 1990s.
  
Ferrari is best known for having worked with seven-time Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong, who in 2001 admitted he had collaborated with the Italian doctor.
  
The use of EPO boosts the oxygen-rich blood cells in the blood, thus allowing athletes to work harder and for longer.
 

SBS will broadcast the 2009 Tour de France from Saturday July 4

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