Can Cadel Evans win the Tour de France?

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Only three days out from the race start in Monaco, Silence-Lotto team-mate Thomas Dekker was thrown off the Tour squad for doping.

Given Evans' well-documented problems with team support and his determination to have a calm preparation this year, the Dekker suspension is a multi-dimensional disaster.

Indeed, well before this bombshell, there was a nagging sense that Evans' chance might have passed to become the first Australian Tour winner.

The 32-year-old was runner-up to Alberto Contador in the 2007 Tour by only 23 seconds.

Last year, he was second again to another Spaniard, Carlos Sastre, by 58 seconds.

That's less than a minute per Tour after three weeks and about 3500km of racing.

Last month Evans showed perfect pre-Tour form by finishing runner-up at the Dauphine Libere, always a key lead-up race, as he has done for the last two years.

He excelled in the two time trials at the Dauphine and might have won the overall title, but for an unofficial alliance between race champion Alejandro Valverde and his compatriot Contador.

Physically, Evans was built for the Tour - Australian cycling coach Dave Sanders likens the 32-year-old's physiology to a diesel engine.

It is also notable that Evans actually suffers on the big mountain climbs.

The drug test results and cycling's rumour mill add further credibility to Evans' strong anti-doping views.

But the Australian has big challenges elsewhere.

Tactical challenges

The main knock on Evans' racing style is that he lacks tactical aggression.

There are also concerns about his ability to handle pressure - his outbursts during last year's Tour are popular snippets on YouTube.

True, Evans was trying to cope with nasty injuries from a mid-Tour crash that nearly put him out of the race. And even his staunchest admirers concede he is a unique personality.

But mayhem is the essence of the Tour de France.

This year's field is packed with potential winners, a double-edged sword for the Australian.

While the serious challenges will come from everywhere, Evans might have less of the limelight and this would not bother him one little bit.

There are four previous champions in Sastre, Contador, fellow Spaniard Oscar Pereiro and seven-time champion Lance Armstrong, while Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Kloden have finished on the podium as well.

Four of those - Contador, Armstrong, Leipheimer and Kloden - are all on the Astana squad and one of the themes of this year's Tour will be how team boss Johann Bruyneel manages his talent.

Armstrong, especially, is not noted for gladly playing second fiddle to anyone.

An unexpected boost for Evans has come from Australian team-mate Matt Lloyd, who suffered serious back injuries in a race crash earlier this season.

Lloyd not only recovered from those wounds, but shot into Silence-Lotto's team and a Tour debut with a stunning ride at the Dauphine.

"He really proved he's a very worthy rider of the Tour ... it's been a really pleasant surprise, actually," Evans said.   

"He's at a level where he can really make a difference at the Tour."

Evans and Lloyd are among six, maybe seven Australian starters this year.

A ruling will decide whether Australia's Allan Davis or Belgian Tom Boonen will ride for Quick Step - the last Tour slot to be decided.

There's also in-form German Heinrich Haussler, who was born in Australia and intends to transfer soon to an Australian racing licence.

Simon Gerrans was a shock omission from Sastre's Cervelo team for the Tour, but Brett Lancaster is in the final nine.

Former top-10 finisher Michael Rogers and Mark Renshaw will ride for Columbia-HTC and the legendary Stuart O'Grady will support the Schleck brothers in the Saxo Bank team.

But the Australian focus will be on Evans, who is being careful these days not to be all things to all people in the eye of the Tour storm.

"My first coach Damien Grundy said a line which I will never forget, and it's especially important at the Tour - `you can't keep everyone happy all of the time and it's dangerous to try'," Evans said.