Swine flu 'like bad seasonal flu year'

1 Mar 2010, 4:47 pm   -   Source: AAP
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Influenza usually claims 1,500 to 3,000 lives in Australia every year, and the toll from swine flu in 2009 would be within that range or slightly higher, an expert says. (BBC)

Influenza usually claims 1,500 to 3,000 lives in Australia every year, and the toll from swine flu in 2009 would be within that range or slightly higher, an expert says. (BBC)

The swine flu pandemic in Australia has been equated to a bad year for seasonal flu, and about as deadly but across a broader age group.

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The swine flu pandemic in Australia has been equated to a bad year for seasonal flu, and about as deadly but across a broader age group.

University of WA Professor in Microbiology David Smith said the influenza A(H1N1) virus had not prompted a significant increase in flu deaths in 2009 over what would have occurred in a typical flu season.

He also said that while people who caught the swine flu felt sicker and were more likely to need hospital care, the virus infected about the same rate of people as were usually hit by seasonal influenza.

"The estimates of the proportion of the population who (normally) get infected are between 15 and 30 per cent, and it looks like that's been very similar for the pandemic strain last year," Prof Smith told AAP on Monday.

"... The WHO (World Health Organisation) has said that it will be some time before the true mortality associated with it is known.

"I think it is fair to say, however, that if it is increased it is not going to be a lot different than seasonal influenza."

Prof Smith said influenza usually claimed 1,500 to 3,000 lives in Australia every year, and the toll from swine flu in 2009 would be within that range or slightly higher.

Collecting data on influenza deaths was complicated by the fact that those most at risk often had chronic illnesses, which could instead be recorded as their primary cause of death.

Prof Smith said the major difference with the swine flu was that older Australians appeared to have a natural resistance to it - likely the result of exposure to a similar virus in their childhood - while the A(H1N1) virus caused more serious illness in 20- to 60-year-olds.

"What we see in a normal seasonal (influenza) year is the majority of those deaths tend to occur in the elderly and, of course, we are seeing a different pattern in 2009 where the severe illnesses tended to occur in a younger age group," Prof Smith said.

"So, we may see a slight difference (in mortality), if not an increase in the number of deaths then in the age distribution of those getting severely ill and dying."

Prof Smith said Australians should expect a milder flu season this year, and while swine flu could continue as the dominant strain more people had immunity to it through the federal government's free vaccination program or prior exposure.

Despite not living up to initial fears about its seriousness, Prof Smith said the swine flu should not be "downplayed" as it had proven able to strike down otherwise young and healthy Australians.

Thirty per cent of those admitted to hospital with a swine flu infection last year had no underlying risk factors, he said.

"This virus still has the ability to cause serious disease in the younger population," Prof Smith said.

"It was a bad season, there were a lot of people who got ill and quite a lot of Australians died, so you don't want to downplay the season ... but it wasn't 1918," he said.

Upwards of 50 million people died worldwide in the 1918-1920 outbreak of Spanish Flu.

Prof Smith gave an address to the annual conference of the Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia, in Melbourne over the weekend.

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Your Comments

More technology, more flu

Colin - from Melbourne, 2 years ago

It seems that our ability to distinguish different types of strains of influenza is a big part of the issue. That we can name our fear heightens it. Is it any more threatening than before. In reality, it seems the answer is no, judging by the scientists own statements. There was always a touch of the Orwellian to this whole 'epidemic' for me and now those fears have been realised. That said, I'll probably drop dead from the flu this year...for a touch of the ironic.

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