French vote promises blow for Sarkozy

21 Mar 2010, 8:10 pm   -   Source: AAP
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French voters have come out as expected to deal President Nicolas Sarkozy a stinging rebuke in regional elections.

French voters have come out as expected to deal President Nicolas Sarkozy a stinging rebuke in regional elections that will be his last big national test before seeking re-election in 2012.

Polling opened at 8am on Sunday (1800 AEDT) and was to continue until 8pm (0600 AEDT on Monday) in most areas of the country. Partial results and exit polling data released to media immediately after voting closes should make the result clear.

Last week's first round vote, while marked by a low turnout, saw the French leader's right-wing supporters win their lowest share of the vote in more than three decades and threatened to wipe them out in regional government.

Opinion polling is banned in France in the immediate run up to the vote, but in previous regional elections second round results have closely mirrored first round tallies, and most commentators expect the left to make gains.

Sarkozy, whose UMP party still has a comfortable majority in the national parliament, has insisted that the regional poll is not a verdict on central government, but he is expected to order a reshuffle in the next few days.

One report, in the pro-government daily Le Figaro, suggested Prime Minister Francois Fillon would offer his government's resignation on Monday but that Sarkozy would ask him to form a new, slightly modified cabinet.

The new ministerial line-up may offer clues as to whether Sarkozy plans to slow-down or alter his reform program. He has spoken of a possible "pause" once he raises the retirement age and reforms some state sector pensions.

"Many of the political strategies of the coming years will be based on this, the last election" before the presidential vote in 2012, said Pascal Perrineau, head of a research institute at the elite Sciences-Po school in Paris.

"If the left takes all the regions, the president will be obliged to think of a political response," Perrineau told AFP, explaining that last week many of Sarkozy's working class supporters had abstained or voted far-right.

"He has to reconnect with a part of the popular vote that supported him in 2007. He has to send them signals on unemployment and on the cost of living for the working class."

Meanwhile, the Socialist opposition has called on its supporters to turn out in greater numbers to secure their regional bastions and begin the fight back that could see their divided party mount a credible challenge in 2012.

Regional councils in 25 regions - 22 on the French mainland and three overseas territories - are up for grabs, the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe having already been won outright by the Socialists in the first round.

The left is already controls 20 regions in continental France, and could even wipe Sarkozy's UMP off the map if it wins close run races in right-wing hold-outs Alsace and Corsica.

In March 14's first round, Sarkozy's UMP trailed the Socialists with 26.3 to 29.5 per cent of the national vote.

The left-leaning greens of Europe Ecologie scored 12.5 per cent and then struck regional electoral pacts with the Socialists for the second round, boosting their joint score well ahead of that of the mainstream right.

Meanwhile, the far-right National Front of Jean-Marie Le Pen did well enough to stay in the race in 12 mainland regions, meaning much of its 11 per cent of the vote will remain outside Sarkozy's reach.

Observers will also be closely watching the turnout. Last week's abstention rate of 53.5 per cent was a record for a regional election.

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