Analysis: Gillard the reluctant challenger

24 Jun 2010, 12:28 am   -   Source: Karen Middleton, SBS
6 Comments
Share This
+ Comment
6
Deputy PM Julia Gillard. (AAP)

Deputy PM Julia Gillard. (AAP)

Although Julia Gillard appears to have the numbers she still looks like the reluctant challenger, writes SBS senior political correspondent Karen Middleton.



RELATED

Although Julia Gillard appears to have the numbers she still looks like the reluctant challenger, writes SBS senior political correspondent Karen Middleton.

On the face of it, Julia Gillard appears set to become the new Prime Minister of Australia.

 

Kevin Rudd has chosen to fight for his job and, if defeated, he will be able to say he did just that.

 

But the early numbers would suggest he is likely to be robbed of the chance to ask the Australian people for a second victory.

 

Ms Gillard still looks like the reluctant challenger. She was persuaded to this course by the unions of the Labor Right, primarily the Australian Workers' Union, and by senior figures in the New South Wales Right.

 

She now has the open support of the AWU and its secretary, Paul Howes, (who's not in Parliament but whose endorsement is indicative of a section of the party).

 

Former union heavyweight, now parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten, was instrumental in this coup. Likewise fellow Victorian union man, Senator David Feeney, South Australian Senator Don Farrell, Agriculture Minister and ex shoppies unionist Tony Burke, and the man the Prime Minister promoted into the ministry a year ago, NSW Senator Mark Arbib.

 

The union-dominated Queensland Right is now also behind Julia Gillard - a lawyer from the party's Victorian Left. Some sections of the NSW Left are saying they are with her too.

 

Still, it is an uncomfortable night for many - if not all - in the Labor caucus. These are terrible nights for a political party, when even the mutineers know they risk blowing themselves up. They will always put the need to hang onto power ahead of the feelings of their leaders. They will describe it as the "national interest" and many will genuinely believe that's what it is. 

 

But it's about keeping the other mob out.

 

They know voters may decide that they would prefer that they get to choose their Prime Minister and not have factional leaders dictate to them.

 

That's what Kevin Rudd is hoping.

 

He is asking his colleagues to respect the fact that he was elected by the people, not factional heavyweights.

 

But the forces behind Julia Gillard hope voters will sigh with relief and find the choice between her and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott an easier one to make. 

 

If Ms Gillard wins, she will become Australia's first female Prime Minister. It's the kind of history-making extra detail which will be used to persuade all those waverers on the backbench to make the boldest and bloodiest of moves.

 

If she loses - well, history tells you these things are rarely over after one challenge. One way or another, it's looking like it could be over for Kevin Rudd. 

 

Politics is most certainly a swift and brutal business. Don't let anybody tell you it's not.

 

  • Follow us: 
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Twitter
  • Follow us on Youtube

Your Comments

Voter

Garry McDougall - from Sydney, 2 years ago

Every party has the right to change its leader. The Liberals did it recently. And now the ALP. Both were done democratically. What's the big deal? When it comes down to it, the governance of the country is more important than any one person. All parties has the right, indeed the obligation, to choose its best leader for its best government.

Go Julia

Dan - from Newcastle, 2 years ago

Firstly I feel sad for Rudd, however i feel that he has been too inflexible in recent months and that has cost him dearly. I hope Gillard does well and lives up to her promise of consensus talks on important matters, not "my way or the highway" like Rudd has been doing recently. She needs to work with the greens in the senate in regards to environmental concerns (and no ETS, please!) and not fall over to the miners. Kevin has implemented some good policies and they need to be continued...

THE PUBLIC SHOULD DECIDE

NB - from Melbourne, 2 years ago

Kevin Rudd was elected as PM by the People of Australia and It should be the people of Australia who should decide whether he should remain as PM or not. This is not a JOB to be decided by a bunch of Union Leaders. I Think RUDD was a good PM and he still will make a good PM if given a chance. Shame on the Labour Party MPs for the outcome today.

Julia

keith - from melbourne, 2 years ago

Julia will be the next PM no doubt about that.

Politics

oncewas - from bribie island, 2 years ago

Kevin was not elected by the people of Australia, he was elected by the people in his electorate. At the same time he was the leader of the party, so he was elected to be PM by his fellow politicians. Looks like Julia might get to be full forward after all.

FIRST FEMALE PM..No... Not this way

Alex - from Sydney, 2 years ago

History will judge these backstabbers harshly. If this is the only way that Julia is capable of becoming Australia's first female Prime Minister then SHAME SHAME on HER and her cohorts!! thats how these power mongers who could never win an election ethically...grab their chance in the first place....behind closed doors...behind the backs of the voters...against our will! WE DID vote for Kevin in the last election even if on paper our Vote went to our local member whoever that was...the simple fact was that it was KEVIN that we knew would be PM...No-one else! What we really need in Australia is a NEW party. Sick to death of all these factional bumfights within Labor. The only way that the Left can get a candidate up is to sneak them in through the back door like they are doing right now with Julia. The reason that Kevin was so popular with the voters was that he stood on more of a middle ground. What we need is a NEW Labour Party. NOT a Labor coalition like we now have. If Kevin loses tomorrow perhaps he should consider this as a serious option.

Join the Discussion

Name
City / Suburb E.g. Artarmon, Sydney
Title
Comment
You have characters remaining.
Validation
What's this?
This is a captcha-picture. It is used to prevent mass-access by robots.
All submitted comments become the property of SBS. They are moderated, so we reserve the right to edit comments and remove HTML tags. Not all submitted comments will be published. Publication does not mean we endorse the opinions expressed. Please read our terms and conditions for more information.