Q&A: Why has the Afghan death toll increased?

25 Aug 2010, 1:10 pm   -   Source: SBS - Anthony Bubalo
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The Australian military death toll in Afghanistan has increased to 21 (AAP)

The Australian military death toll in Afghanistan has increased to 21 (AAP)

As the Australian military death toll in Afghanistan soars to 21, West Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute, Anthony Bubalo, talks to SBS about what is causing the sudden spike in bloodshed.

As the Australian military death toll in Afghanistan soars to 21 - with 12 deaths in the last 3 months alone - West Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute, Anthony Bubalo, talks to SBS about what is causing the sudden spike in bloodshed.

Why has there been an increase in the number of Australian deaths in Afghanistan over the last few months?
A number of factors probably explain the increasing death toll.  First, the mission of our forces in Uruzgan has changed in the last year or so towards a greater security role in the province and a greater training and mentoring role with the Afghan National Army.  This has meant that our forces are now out more often patrolling in more dangers parts of the province, including in partnership with the Afghan National Army. 

Second, the Taliban may well be stepping up its activities in Uruzgan province, whereas in the past they tended to use the province more as a transit and rest and recovery area. 

Third, even before changes in Australian or Taliban strategy, Uruzgan was already pretty dangerous and it was often just good luck, as well as good management, that prevented Australian forces suffering more casualties.  It may be that our luck has, unfortunately, changed for the worse this year.

The phrase "killing season" has been bandied about a bit. Is there such a thing, and are we in the midst of it?
It is true in general that more fighting takes place in summer months than in winter months when movement, in particular, becomes more difficult.  But the distinction is a bit over done and in recent years the ‘fighting season’ has extended into  the winter months as well.

Are we succeeding in our mission in Afghanistan?
Although coalition forces have been in Afghanistan for almost a decade it is really only in the last year that they have adopted a new, more comprehensive strategy for combating the insurgency and have committed extra resources to the task. 

It is therefore too early to tell whether this new strategy will work and whether there are sufficient resources to make it work.  Indeed, the indicators at the moment are very mixed. 

Recently, General David Petraeus the Commander of Coalition forces in Afghanistan claimed that the Taliban’s momentum had been reversed and this may well be the case.  Equally though, according to UN figures, civilian casualties are up this year. 

Even though most of these casualties were, according to the UN, caused by the insurgents, given that protection of the population has been defined as a key aim of the coalition’s new strategy, it means that at least by this benchmark, so far this year we have not been succeeding. 

What indications have the ADF and Australian government given regarding a timeline on how long Australian troops will remain in Afghanistan?
The Defence Minister Senator Faulkner has done a good job at defining specifically, if perhaps too narrowly, what Australian troops are doing in Afghanistan, in particular, in training and mentoring the Afghan National Army units in Uruzgan. 

He has even given a rough timeframe about when this job might be complete – by 2014. 

Any new government will probably need, however, to be more specific about how it measures success in Afghanistan and by what criteria it will decide when to leave, particularly if Australian casualties continue to increase.

Given the rising chorus of opposition to the war, is it time to consider pulling out?
Even though support for the war in Australia has declined in recent years and a slight majority of Australians are now opposed to our continuing role than support it, community attitudes to the war as a whole are still pretty evenly balanced. 

We have not seen the public protests that we saw over the Iraq war and we have not seen Afghanistan become an election issue as the Iraq war did.  Having said that, attitudes may well change as casualties mount.

Personally I do not think we should consider pulling out yet, I do not think the war is a lost cause and I think there are important national security reasons why we should be there. 

But I do think that our political leaders need to engage on this issue in public more and explain what our soldiers are doing and not just in narrow technical terms, but what the future stability of Afghanistan and its region means to Australia’s security. 

In this regard it is time for a parliamentary debate on the issue, something that the Greens have called for, but something that even some supporters of a continuing Australian commitment have asked for.
 

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part 2

farooq - from melbourne, 2 years ago

people for a bloody revolution(label it islamic if you like); US will once again be responbile for causing mess in Pakistan and get away with its own military failures,and this will spread across to all borders,and who knows what future wars are at the doorstep. for all revoltions, poor Louis XVI there wasnt any aircraft in 17th centrury France for him to fly away nor he had the option of seeking asylum. however, in this day and age,troublemakers get the option of escaping the mess they make

aftermath of US withdrawl-Part I

farooq - from melbourne, 2 years ago

Australia is safe,taliban dont have navy or airforce, but they are most dangerous soldiers in the world; greek,british,russian empires and now the US have felt that they cannot win,so who will suffer from the withdrawal in the end,yes alas pakistan again,this time the taliban will wage war for backstabbing them.pak army wont be able to fight and this will make another radical nation,where our corrupt leaders have done nothing but to please their white masters(USA) will flee for asylum and leave

answer

colonial boy - from europe, 2 years ago

the death toll of aussies has increased because of lack of committment to the war by australia and other countries. successful lefty propganda is partly responsible for the deaths of many, if the west was serious we would have finished this war a long time ago. the U.N. does nothing. you cannot buy peace from extremists only more time. it is the bleeding hearts that help kill the innocents. i believe our forefathers would be ashamed of this war effort and the frivolous attitude of our masses

Peace, peace there is no peace

David Falconer - from NSW Central Coast, 2 years ago

What is peace anyway? If we combat corruption, help with infrastrucure like water, sanitation, hospitals, schools, we build hope, not hate. Is this what we give? People who try to destroy these things will show their nature. By simply assisting people to be able live a life where they grow and learn and work and enjoy the benefits of their labours we will have done something good. If the insurgents offer the exact same thing then our efforts are perhaps redundant. Whats being offered?

Air support

AlouetteIII pilot - from Elanora, 2 years ago

Troops on the ground in hostile country need close air support and eyes in the sky. More importantly they need a sound air support doctrine. Google 'Fire Force COIN ops Rhodesia'. It's all been done before. History has they lessons for anybody who is humble enough to learn from others. Our boys have the guts... Give them air support and get some Aussie UAVs overhead 24/7.

EXRAAF

jon - from Kalgoorlie, 2 years ago

It seems to me that Aussie troops are looking after a region that the Dutch looked after. As the Dutch took their Helicopters and F-16's with them who is guaranteeing "Close air support" Why were our boys in a three hour firefight until CAS arrived to assist in their withdrawl We have 2 Heavy Lift Helo's up in the north helping out the US. Why are our NEW attack Helo's (Tiger's)not supporting the lads. Dare i sayto the Australian Government " Go hard or go home !"

M

Mahmoud kiazad - from Gold coast , 2 years ago

Hi ,i was a Navy pilot( see king ), serve afew years in Iran and Iraq war, please bring all Australian Troops back Home, dont let them die for just politics, the war in Iraq and Afganestan is nothing to do with Australia , they play just games , if they stay longer we lose them more I lost so meney of my frinds on that war, politetion in this country has no idea about Iraq and Afganestan,if you need more info contact me, just look at Irag, best regard Kiazad

Mr.

B.J.Arthur - from Tahmoor NSW, 2 years ago

I served two tours of duty in South Vietnam in the 60's & 70's. We were told then that we were fighting to save Australia from Communism. More than 500 men died for that particular statement, in the end to no avail. One of the hopes of all veterans is that we would never again repeat that mistake and yet each night on TV I see a replay of that war and I ask myself did we learn nothing in Vietnam? How many more of our soldiers have to die in that God forsaken country? Get them out. Now!

Mr.

Hans-Heinrich Boeker - from Wyoming, NSW, 2 years ago

The US started this mess in Afghanistan; now they expect the rest of the world to fight their fight and bleed for them. The time has come to stop our involvement, as othrers have already done. The mantra "our troops fighting there protects us here and makes us more secure" is balderdash. All we achieve is to create more and more people to hate us for helping the agressors: the USA.

Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Nicki Fletcher - from Tasmania, 2 years ago

Andrew Wilkie is right. There is no evidence that our presence in this war is deterring any threat of terrorism on Australian shores. Put the current resources funding our military into aid in Pakistan instead!

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