Qld floods 'linked to climate change'

12 Jan 2011, 7:01 pm   -   Source: Reuters
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The Queensland floods have killed 16 people since the downpour started last month, inundating towns. (AAP)

The Queensland floods have killed 16 people since the downpour started last month, inundating towns. (AAP)

Climate change has likely intensified the monsoon rains that have triggered record floods in Australia's Queensland state, scientists said.

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Climate change has likely intensified the monsoon rains that have triggered record floods in Australia's Queensland state, scientists said, with several months of heavy rain and storms still to come.

But while scientists say a warmer world is predicted to lead to more intense droughts and floods, it wasn't yet possible to say if climate change would trigger stronger La Nina and El Nino weather patterns that can cause weather chaos across the globe.

"I think people will end up concluding that at least some of the intensity of the monsoon in Queensland can be attributed to climate change," said Matthew England of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

"The waters off Australia are the warmest ever measured and those waters provide moisture to the atmosphere for the Queensland and northern Australia monsoon," he told Reuters.

The Queensland floods have killed 16 people since the downpour started last month, inundating towns, crippling coal mining and are now swamping the state's main city of Brisbane.

The rains have been blamed on one of the strongest La Nina patterns ever recorded. La Nina is a cooling of ocean temperatures in the east and central Pacific, which usually leads to more rain over much of Australia, Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia.

This is because the phenomena leads to stronger easterly winds in the tropics that pile up warm water in the western Pacific and around Australia. Indonesia said on Wednesday it expected prolonged rains until June.

WEATHER SWITCH

The Pacific has historically switched between La Nina phases and El Ninos, which have the opposite impact by triggering droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia.

"We've always had El Ninos and we've had natural variability but the background which is now operating is different," said David Jones, head of climate monitoring and prediction at the Australia Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne.

"The first thing we can say with La Nina and El Nino is it is now happening in a hotter world," he told Reuters, adding that meant more evaporation from land and oceans, more moisture in the atmosphere and stronger weather patterns.

"So the El Nino droughts would be expected to be exacerbated and also La Nina floods because rainfall would be exacerbated," he said, though adding it would be some years before any climate change impact on both phenomena might become clear.

He said the current La Nina was different because of the warmest ocean temperatures on record around Australia and record humidity in eastern Australia over the past 12 months.

Prominent U.S. climate scientist Kevin Trenberth said the floods and the intense La Nina were a combination of factors.

He pointed to high ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia early last year as well as the rapid onset of La Nina after the last El Nino ended in May.

"The rapid onset of La Nina meant the Asian monsoon was enhanced and the over 1 degree Celsius anomalies in sea surface temperatures led to the flooding in India and China in July and Pakistan in August," he told Reuters in an email.

He said a portion, about 0.5C, of the ocean temperatures around northern Australia, which are more than 1.5C above pre-1970 levels, could be attributed to global warming.

"The extra water vapor fuels the monsoon and thus alters the winds and the monsoon itself and so this likely increases the rainfall further," said Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

"So it is easy to argue that 1 degree Celsius sea surface temperature anomalies gives 10 to 15 percent increase in rainfall," he added.

Some scientists said it was still too soon to draw a definite climate change link to the floods.

"It's a natural phenomena. We have no strong reason at the moment for saying this La Nina is any stronger than it would be even without humans," said Neville Nicholls of Monash University in Melbourne and president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.

But he said global atmospheric warming of about 0.75C over the past half century had to be having some impact.

"It has to be affecting the climate, regionally and globally. It has to be affecting things like La Nina. But can you find a credible argument which says it's made it worse? I can't at the moment."

(Editing by Robert Birsel)

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Quakes cause Climate Change

ken - from SE Melbourne, 2 years ago

Who can say it is not true?

Act now

Nick - from Perth, 2 years ago

It is fact a crime to remain silent on this issue. I remember the warning about climate change in the 80's. It was predicted back them that as man made climate change kicked in we'll see and increase in both droughts and flooding. Also we'll see more storm surges and sea level rises, cyclonic activity and other climate related disasters. It is imperative we stop dithering around this issue and both adopt measures to resolve climate change and to prepare for it. the sooner we act the better.

Why Brisbane statistics from skeptics?

Berry - from Sydney, 2 years ago

"Have a look at the BOM statistics for floods in Brisbane. The 1974 flood was pretty unremarkable and the latest flood even more so" Do the skeptics think no one will notice if they cite statistics for Brisbane when 75% of the state of Queensland has been flooded? Rainfall across the state last month (December) was the highest on record. Sea temperature and precipitation all trend up for the region. Big call to blame the floods on climate change, sure. But, skeptics - do some more homework.

As predicted

Graham - from Brisbane, 2 years ago

Reading todays flood level from the river markers in downtown Brisbane is ridiculous The Somerset dam prevented a repeat of 1893 and the Wivenhoe dam that of 74 ALL the previous record floods were caused by CYCLONE activity or cyclone remnant activity. This is the FIRST major flood that has been caused entirely by record levels of rain over a very extended period. Over DOUBLE the level of rain fell in 2011 than in 74 due to local sea surface temperatures rising over the last century.

WHAT A SHAM!

wellsightedgentleman - from Bendigo, 2 years ago

none read and remember even the most recent articles and stories published through the msm. Climate change? just the consideration of such trecherous scientism needs no place here, Anna Bligh and the AUstralian Government have overtly struck a deal, only three months ago to allowed the King of Thailand's".. rain-making technology (and it) will be put into full effect" over QLD filling the skies with 'climate changing' chemicals. How tardy is the MSM noto correlate the truth when they know it?

Nothing unusual about Brisbane Flooding

Shane - from Geelong, 2 years ago

Have a look at the BOM statistics for floods in Brisbane. The 1974 flood was pretty unremarkable and the latest flood even more so. http://reg.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml Why all the climate change hysterics?

???

Al - from Oz, 2 years ago

If people had been paying attention to what is happening in THE REAL WORLD instead of some "dogdy psuedo science climate change bs" - things might have been a bit different.

reactionary retardism

Liamj - from northern Vic., 2 years ago

@Len Johnson - you should read the article before claiming there is no evidence (sea surface temps hmmm?), typical climate change 'sceptic' already has his mind made up.

Climate = change

Bill R - from Australia, 2 years ago

It's all due to climate and climate IS change. It's about time we stopped arguing over whether it's getting warmer or cooler (even though long term evidence suggests we are reaching the end of an inter-glacial period) and started dealing with the real issue we can't seem to accept and that is CHANGE. Brisbane is built on a young sinuous river so expect it to flood. Deal with it and prevent loss of life and damage. Think of our world as dynamically changing and plan.

What a Crock

Len Joynson - from Sydney, 2 years ago

There is absolutely no evidence to support the contention this person is putting forward. the only evidence we have is that floods of this nature have occurred before and undoubtedly will occur again. Political point scoring on the back of disasters like this by the climate scare fraternity is truely appauling.

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