Analysis: What are the options in Syria?

7 Feb 2012, 5:41 pm   -   Source: SBS
4 Comments
Share This
+ Comment
4
Protesters in the troubled city of Homs. (AAP)

Protesters in the troubled city of Homs. (AAP)

SBS talks to Mideast expert and international law lecturer Dr Anthony Billingsley from UNSW about what Western powers could, should or shouldn't do about violence in Syria.

RELATED

SBS talks to Mideast expert and international law lecturer Dr Anthony Billingsley from UNSW about what Western powers could, should or shouldn't do about violence in Syria.

Q: China and Russia have blocked UN action on Syria. What - if anything - do you think the UN could have achieved in Syria?

A: The two countries have always been opposed to external intervention in the domestic affairs of states and the move by the West from humanitarian intervention to regime change in Libya confirmed those suspicions.

The insistence by the Americans on the inclusion of a call for Assad to step down in the draft resolution on Syria (effectively a step towards regime change) made it unacceptable to Russia and China.

Russia is more involved than China. It has significant interests in the survival of the Assad regime. Syria relied heavily on the Soviet Union for arms and for trade. With the end of the Soviet Union that relationship collapsed but it has been reviving over recent years.

Russia sees Syria as an opening to the Middle East and to the Mediterranean and enjoys significant port access for its navy in Tartous on the Syrian coast.

On top of that, Russia seems to be reviving its competition with the United States. Syria is the only foothold Russia has in the Middle East. A new regime in Damascus is likely to be dominated by Sunni Muslims who will be aligned more closely to neighbouring states, most of which have ties to the West.

The successor regime is likely, therefore, to be less sympathetic towards Russian interests.

Q: The last place NATO intervened in an uprising against a long-standing leader was Libya. In what ways is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad different to Muammar Gaddafi?

A: In the current political atmosphere it is not surprising that the action in the Security Council failed.

Syria is largely isolated and is suspicious of any initiative promoted by its Arab and Western opponents.

If the UN is to achieve anything in this crisis, it will have to step away from the idea of regime change and concentrate on finding a way of moderating government repression of opposition groups while getting those groups to come to terms with the Assad government.

Assad is not going to step down voluntarily. His regime is both a family regime and an Alawite regime.

Unless disaster is staring them in the face, these groups will not agree to him stepping down.

Q: Who is Assad's opposition? Can you give an overview of the religious and political landscape in Syria?

A: There appear to be two strands in the opposition in Syria. Much of the resistance to the government has come from the religiously conservative cities of Homs and Hama, which raises the spectre of Islamic fundamentalism.

There is also a more secular element drawn in part from young people who are frustrated at the parlous state of the economy and their inability to find unemployment. More generally there are people who would genuinely like to see a more democratic political system in place in their country.

Syria is about 85 per cent Sunni Muslim. The ruling group, the Alawites (or Nusairis) are a sect of Shi’a Islam (hence the alliance with Iran) and are regarded by the majority as heretics.

They constitute around 9 per cent of the population, with Christians making up most of the rest.

There is also a significant Kurdish population in Syria which has been persecuted for many years.

The result is a highly volatile situation in which religious, racial and political tensions lie just below the surface.

One of the great achievements of the father of the current president, Hafez Al-Assad, was to contain these tensions over a long period.

The divisions in the society were almost too mush even for Hafez when, in 1982, the Muslim Brotherhood rose in revolt and almost destroyed the regime.

As far as the current government is concerned, recent events have much in common with those of 1982 and need to be handled with the same degree of ruthlessness.

Q: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said her country needs to ‘redouble its efforts outside of the UN’. In your opinion, does that indicate that the UN is becoming more obsolete than ever?

A: It is disappointing that Clinton should make such comments.

A year ago, the United States vetoed a draft Security Council resolution on Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories. The draft was based on US policy. The vote was 14-1. The irony of Clinton’s comments seems to have escaped her.

The UN has an essential role in dealing with issues of international peace and security but it can only be effective if its members allow it to be so. It has to operate on the basis of compromise not as a tool of US foreign policy.

The UN played a central role in the action against Libya last year when all the Security Council members were able to find common ground. It is to be expected that it will again play a role in the current crisis once the parties have accepted the need to compromise.

Q: Saudi Arabia's rulers are Sunni. Are they likely to be friends to Syria, or are they simply interested in knocking down an Iranian ally?

A: Saudi Arabia is keen to sever the ties between Syria and Iran.

There has also been bad blood between members of the Saudi and Syrian governments.

The Saudis are, however, deeply concerned that democratic forces should not gain a foothold in the region and they fear that Assad’s downfall is likely and may open the door to those forces.

Their concern is to see Assad replaced in an orderly manner, in a way that will not encourage movement for change in the region.

Q. What about the Syrian community in Australia – how is the pro- versus anti-regime debate being played out here?

A: The community in Australia, reflecting Syrians elsewhere, is divided over what to do.

There has already been at least one violent incident involving Syrians of different political persuasions.

This is a similar pattern to what occurs when trouble breaks out in other countries in the Middle East.

Dr Anthony John Billingsley is a lecturer at the University of New South Wales who specialises in political succession, international law and the Middle East.

  • Follow us: 
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Twitter
  • Follow us on Youtube

Your Comments

where are the real news reporting

adrian - from canberra, 3 months ago

Seriously for a news organization with such a good reputation for been fair and unbiased, your recent reporting on the middle-east has been nothing but one side (pro western). there is lot more to the story then what you are providing. For instance why are all the Middle Eastern opposition groups in exile lobbying our government to make decision on the Middle East based on an outcome of either yes or no, what are their agendas?

the nato staft

ian johnston - from wyong, 4 months ago

The comies wanted back into europe..nato... like a lost sheep found... we should have rejoiced and made them feel welcome... instead we shafted them.. and ignited the cold war again... just stupidity... of course it would have had to be a round table... with the elvis philosopy of " don't step on my blue suede shoes" ...and nato would have had a base in syria.. even the yanks could have piled there ships in there with a nod from the comies... instead... it's a dog's breakfest....

Other Factors

Rashid - from WA, 4 months ago

Q: Who is Assad's opposition? What is missing in the equation given, is the roll of the West on behalf of Israel! Take that factor out and leave the Syrians and even others to sort themselves out.

Student

Mia - from Tas, 4 months ago

Finally someone talks some sense.

Join the Discussion

Name
City / Suburb E.g. Artarmon, Sydney
Title
Comment
You have characters remaining.
Validation
What's this?
This is a captcha-picture. It is used to prevent mass-access by robots.
All submitted comments become the property of SBS. They are moderated, so we reserve the right to edit comments and remove HTML tags. Not all submitted comments will be published. Publication does not mean we endorse the opinions expressed. Please read our terms and conditions for more information.