Reining in the dollar 'risky': Treasury

17 Aug 2012, 6:14 pm   -   Source: AAP
Treasury's quarterly economic roundup says the value of the dollar should be judged according to whether it is consistent with macroeconomic stability. (AAP)

Treasury's quarterly economic roundup says the value of the dollar should be judged according to whether it is consistent with macroeconomic stability. (AAP)

Calls for central bank intervention against the Australian dollar are "misplaced" and would result in greater instability, Treasury says.

RELATED

Treasury has weighed into debate on the strength of the Australian dollar, saying any steps to weaken the currency could upset the economy.

Treasury's quarterly economic roundup says the value of the dollar should be judged according to whether it is consistent with macroeconomic stability.

"If the high exchange rate is judged to be inconsistent with keeping the economy close to non-inflationary full employment, we could expect that monetary policy would be eased in response, putting downward pressure on the AUD," the report released on Friday said.

Calls for action to lower the value of the dollar were "misplaced".

"Rather than helping the economy, the available options are likely to be either ineffective or result in greater macroeconomic instability," it said.

One former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board member and trade unions have called for the central bank to drive down the currency because of the impact it is having on some sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing.

The RBA itself raised concerns about the dollar's persistent strength in its quarterly statement on monetary policy released last week, saying it could have a greater contractionary impact on the economy than previously thought.

Also in the quarterly round-up, an analyst concluded that following the model of Norway's sovereign wealth fund would not be sensible for Australia in the current global environment.

The report says it would be difficult to set up a sovereign wealth fund in the current circumstances, while noting arguments that it would relieve pressure from a high currency by saving a greater share of tax revenue arising from the mining boom.

It compares the experiences of Norway and Chile, which both have wealth funds.

While Norway had experienced little exchange-rate appreciation during its resource booms, Chile's currency had risen at a similar rate to the Aussie dollar.

Australia would need to have achieved eight budget surpluses of more than four per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to replicate the success of Norway's fund.

The Labor federal government has produced deficits since 2008/09, although it expects to make a small $1.5 billion surplus in this financial year.

Considerable economic differences with Norway also meant Australia had captured a much smaller share of the increase in national income associated with the resource boom.

"This suggests ... it would be inherently difficult, and not necessarily sensible to replicate the Norwegian experience, particularly within the current global economic environment," the report says.

It comes a day after the government rejected a Manufacturing Taskforce recommendation that it investigate setting up a sovereign wealth fund.

The Treasury round-up also noted other, mounting pressures arising from the resources boom.

It said Treasury's business liaison program had highlighted growing strains from the rush of mining construction, with mining companies finding it hard to recruit staff, particularly for specialised technical positions.

"These shortages were expected to continue in the near term," it said.

"In some cases, there were reports that this could lead to either sourcing less experienced staff or breaking up contract work into smaller parts."

  • Follow us: 
  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Twitter
  • Follow us on Youtube