What are your chances of winning Oz Lotto?

6 Nov 2012, 9:03 pm   -   Source: Andy Park, SBS
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File: AAP)

File: AAP)

By the end of today, Australians are set to gamble up to $500 million, but most are not aware of just how low their chances really are, says a leading probability expert.

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Professor Peter Taylor is an applied mathematician at the University of Melbourne and says the average punter should be made aware of the reality of their choices, especially when it comes to OZ Lotto’s $100 million jackpot today.

“You’ve got to choose seven numbers out of 45. There are, roughly speaking, 45 million ways of doing that; 45,360,620 I think is the exact number,” he said.

That’s double Australia’s population.

“And if you bought more than one ticket, multiply that by two – that’s still not much out of 45 million,” he said.

Based on 18 games, the odds remain 2,521,090 to one.

Professor Taylor says most people are not aware, despite the obvious logic, that the system is designed to provide dividends to the operator.

“Every time you buy a lottery ticket you are losing. The lottery on average makes more money out of each ticket than you do, they pay less back than the full price,”

Dr Darren Christensen is among Australia’s leading experts in behavioural decision making, especially in problem gambling.

“The reason people gamble is that they are thinking about what they might do with the money and are distracted by the possibility of winning,” he said.

“They don’t make an accurate assessment of what the chances really are."

He has studied gambling behaviors around the world and says Australia's relationship with gambling is unique.

"It’s usual to have a day where the prohibitions about gambling are lowered –  'the race that stops a nation' is quite unusual.

“For the most part – gambling is recreation that most people don't have a problem with. It’s a small group that do, but they have a significant problem."

But even an applied mathematician like Professor Taylor is not immune to the fever that grips Australia on Melbourne Cup day.

“There are reasons to get involved: you feel part of something, you get a thrill, there’s the hope that’s engendered by the chance of winning and they are all positive things.

"But on average you are going to lose.

"You’re not on a winner. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it, but you should not do it if you are trying to make money.

“For me gambling is not a bad thing, but you should ever gamble anything you can afford to lose."

Will he, an applied mathematician, be placing a bet on the Cup today or buying an OZ Lotto ticket?

“Ah, no,” he said.

Oz Lotto , The Melbourne Cup , Andy Park SBS

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giving away money and getting something back

L.A - from Melbourne, 1 month

why all this Lotto, Pokies? If gambling is based on making your own life better what would make sense would be if every house donated $50 per week - say to a shire fund that in turn funded things needed within that area like a child care centre for working parents, better roads, a new library or entertainment centre. At least everyone would benefit from giving away money rather than holding onto a working class dream of maybe striking it rich. The billions made from gambling goes where?

So what's the formula to win?

James Iz - from Hobart, 2 months ago

So just tell me how to improve my odds! :)

Its a Dream

James Pallentine - from Brisbane, 4 months ago

Any of us could spend the same amount on 2 drinks at the pub, its the dream of being financially set for life and being able to care for yourself and loved ones relieving pressure of financial burdens and being able to do all those things u dreamed of. Don't crush dreams with figures....

@shortodds - your calculations are wrong.

Jerry - from Brisbane, 7 months ago

to work out the odds it you do the following (7/45)*(6/44)*(5/43)*(4/42)*(3/41)*(2/40)*(1/39). You get a very very small number. Next you invert that number or 1/(small number) this gives you the odds that the proffessor was talking about.

Ignorance is not bliss.

KD - from Gold Coast, 7 months ago

The argument "thousands of others may need the money to pay bills and mortgages" is exactly Darrens point. If you aren't in a financial position to lose money in such a frivolous manner then you probably shouldn't be gambling. It's the wealthy that can afford to gamble, which is actually rather ironic. Essentially every time you gamble you are spending money for no good or services in return. Seeing as so many of us are in a position to do this, maybe charity would be a better alternative.

professor is right

namu - from North Turramurra, 7 months ago

professor is right. @shortodds: you are calculating permutations. the order is not important. so it should be 45x44x43x42x41x40x39 divided by 7! i.e. 45C7. So we have 45.37962 million. I think it's a typo in the newspaper article

1 ticket gives you more chances to win then no ticket at all

Adam - from Sydney, 7 months ago

yes, the odds are terrible, but the odds of winning are much higher when you buy a ticket then if you don't!

Is the math professor wrong?

ShortOdds - from Sunshine Coast, 7 months ago

Firstly 40,000 million is about 100 million times greater than 45,360,620. So from that point of view the article or professor is wrong. Secondly, I would've thought the total number of combinations can be calculated by: 45x44x43x42x41x40x39 = 228,713,284,800 possible combinations of numbers That is, you have 45 choices for the first number, then 44 for the next, and so on. Then multiply them to get the total combinations, no? I'm happy to be corrected.

Millions would be lost without cherishing Hope!

FranklySpeaking - from Rowville Needs Railway, 7 months ago

The Prof may speak from his ivory tower and be quoted a little inaccurately. However, a nobody like me will say that Lotteries and Luck are bestowed by Lady Luck. A pauper may win a $100m with a single entry, thus beating all the sophisticated syndicates with fancy names! The Prof may not need the money, but thousands of others need it pay bills and mortgages. It is a dream not to be squashed cruelly. However, I must say, to win a 12-horse race than a 24-horse race. Even F1 is easier!

I heard different

Yousif - from Sydney, 7 months ago

Gambling is not bad? I'm sure most aspects of the tourism, healthcare, welfare, workforce, law enforcement, economics, religions etc etc etc have a different view.

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