As the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah holds, plans to deploy troops to act as peacekeepers have gathered pace, with 15,000 Lebanese troops expected to be deployed in the next few days.
By
AFP

Source:
AFP
16 Aug 2006 - 12:00 AM  UPDATED 22 Aug 2013 - 12:18 PM

In addition to Lebanon’s 15,000 soldiers a top UN official has called for up to 3 500 international peacekeepers to be deployed within two weeks to shore up the UN-brokered ceasefire.

No precise timetable has been set for the deployment of the international force, which is expected to include contingents from France, Italy, Malaysia and Belgium, but Hedi Annabi, the assistant secretary-general for peacekeeping operations, said a quick deployment was needed, "We would like to see 3,000 to 3,500 troops within 10 days to two weeks," Mr Annabi told reporters at UN headquarters in New York.

"That would be ideal to help consolidate the cessation of hostilities and start the process of withdrawal and deployment of the Lebanese forces as foreseen in the resolution."

Still dangerous

Thousands of displaced Lebanese continue to flock back home, clogging bombed out roads in the process, but Israel has warned those heading to southern Lebanon not to attempt the journey until the Lebanese army was in the region because conditions were “dangerous.”

Israeli army chief Dan Halutz said it would take "one week to 10 days" for his troops to transfer control to the Lebanese army, which remained on the sidelines of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

Despite accepting the ceasefire resolution, Hezbollah has said it would keep on fighting until the last Israeli soldier leaves Lebanon and said it won't disarm under force.

Disarmament necessary

Disarming Hezbollah has becoming a key interest of the international countries considering taking part in the UN mission. The French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste- Blazy, whose country is expected to lead the force, has confirmed that his country will not commit to sending any soldiers without guarantees the militant group will lay down its arms.

"Time is of the essence," Mr Douste-Blazy told French television.

Germany will make concrete proposals on its contribution to the international force at a UN meeting on Thursday, with local papers reporting that Germany’s naval forces could be deployed to secure the waters of Lebanon.

“Verge of catastrophe”

Meanwhile, aid agencies have complained that they are still having problems delivering help to the thousands of displaced people in Lebanon, because of Israel's ban on vehicle movement and air and sea blockade.

More than 900,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced during the conflict which has destroyed thousands of homes, dozens of bridges and hundreds of kilometres of roads.

UN humanitarian relief chief Jan Egeland warned in an interview with a Russian newspaper that the humanitarian situation was "on the verge of catastrophe."

He said Israelis should "think hard" before bombing civilian targets, but also criticized Hezbollah, saying that its fighters had hidden or carried out strikes from among civilians.

Reconstruction manageable

Economists have put the Lebanese cost of the conflict to at least three billion dollars. The cost of the war on Israel's economy is estimated at nearly 5.7 billion dollars, according to the top-selling Yediot Aharonot daily.

Lebanon’s traditional oil-rich allies in the Gulf have pledged about 800 million dollars, raising hopes that the country’s infrastructure can be quickly reconstructed, but high unemployment and a shattered private sector could cause problems for a complete recovery.

"I think that it all depends on how the conflict will end. I don't believe that it has ended. If we can come out with the start of a real process it will only be a blip," said Khaled Zaidan, head of securities at BankMed.

Economist Kamal Hamdan estimated that almost three billion dollars worth of direct losses were caused by the Israeli offensive, with one third in infrastructure and most of the rest in housing and commercial buildings.

Indirect losses, based mostly on heavy losses in the tourist sector and idled industry may exceed another two billion dollars, he warned.

"There will be no positive growth for the second year in a row. This is very bad for a country like Lebanon with serious macroeconomic and financial imbalances," he said.

Lebanon's public debt has spiralled to 38.8 billion dollars, or 170 percent of GDP, since the end of its civil war in 1990.

Positive signs

But there are some positive signs; the banking system remains liquid, with the central bank still holding solid currency reserves, bolstered by Kuwaiti and Saudi injections, after it used an estimated one billion dollars to support the local pound during the offensive.

The cessation of hostilities has also seen government bonds recover and a bullish mood has returned to the local stock market and there will be growth in the construction sector as aid helps rebuild thousands of destroyed buildings.

Beirut's airport, out of action because of Israeli air strikes, could re-open in a week if security guarantees are given. However, the government says two-and-a-half months will be needed for it to become fully operational.