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Obama's win and the sharemarket
07 November 2012 | 17:47 | Source: Ricardo Goncalves, SBS
Despite the certainty which the election now provides, the so-called fiscal cliff, may leave investors hanging, until at least, the end of the year.
AMP Capital's Shane Oliver says a Romney win may have seen a 3 per cent kneejerk rise in the US sharemarket, because his policies were seen as more pro-business.
Romney was committed to reducing company tax and cutting taxes for all Americans.
Obama's tax policy sees cuts only for non-high income earners.
Romney favoured less regulation, especially for financial services, energy and the environment.
He was also keen to scale back spending, particularly social welfare and health.
But any gains seen on the sharemarket, under a Romney win, may have not lasted anyway according Shane Oliver because he would not have won the Senate.
The past, also paints a different picture.
If you look at the history books, investors prefer a Democrat President with US shares, on average up 15 per cent per annum since 1945 under a Democrat President.
That compares with a 10 per cent rise under a Republican president.
Peter Esho from City Index notes that an Obama win may be good for the market because investors know Obama's style, while an uncertain or very close outcome would have caused angst amongst traders.
Furthermore, unlike Romney, Obama was keen on keeping Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who has been printing money to stimulate the US economy recently.
On the flip side, if that continues, the Australian dollar will appreciate against the greenback.
The biggest and most immediate challenge for the President now, is to address the 'fiscal cliff' issue.
At the end of the year, automatic tax hikes for both tax payers and some business will come into action while a series of spending cuts agreed upon as part of a debt ceiling deal of 2011 will begin to go into effect.
There are fears, that may drag the US economy into recession if left unattended and not changed.
Shane Oliver thinks ultimately, a compromise will be reached and the 'fiscal cliff' will be cut back from a recession driving 4.3 per cent of GDP as the current law stipulates, to something more like 1.5 to 2 per cent of GDP which will enable the US economic recovery to continue.
But, as Commsec's Craig James notes, the 'fiscal cliff' is just one part of a series of investor concerns which includes the issues of job creation, European debt, Iran, Afghanistan and the Chinese political handover.