Ricardo's Business

Well, it seems the tide may be turning.

Analysts at HSBC say the Australian dollar will tumble over the next few months, and return to US$0.95 by the end of the year.

Along with lower local interest rates, HSBC expects a further deterioration in the US economy will force our currency to be sold off.

It adds, traditionally, the Australian dollar has been one of the worst performers under an American slowdown which may get worse as the country continues to grapple with its growing debt.

The US Federal Reserve is also expected to stimulate the US economy, through a series of bond buying programs, which will impact global currency markets.

The Australian dollar has fallen over the past few days, because of concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, evidenced by yesterday’s unexpected 2.6 per cent fall in China’s imports. That seems to suggest the country is demanding less. Furthermore, industrial production slowed to its slowest pace in three years in the world’s most populous country.

Today, economists at NAB lowered its Chinese growth expectations from 7.75 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

While it’s still a solid forecast, it is down, and not necessarily the best news for Australia, and its resources sector.

Today’s NAB Business Confidence survey showed that the mining sector recorded a very sharp fall in business conditions. It follows a declined in commodity prices, which along with the higher Australian dollar, have placed pressure on profit margins.

Yesterday, BHP Billiton and Xstrata said they would let go of around 900 jobs combined because of higher input costs placing pressure on profits.

Incidentally, NAB has a 2012 Australian currency forecast of US$1.