Michael Moore has called it. When Americans go to the polls this November, former reality TV star Donald Trump will be named the country's 45th president.
While it may seem like a doomsdayer's approach, Moore actually makes some pretty solid points on why the "dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath" will cinch victory in a recent blog post.
Outlining the five reasons underpinning his beliefs, the acclaimed documentary maker warns that those assuming the public will be won over by facts and logic have "obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut."
"Trying to soothe yourself with the facts –'77% of the electorate are women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of them!' – or logic – 'people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against their own best interests!' – is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma," he says.
Similar to the Brexit outcome (after which millions of people who couldn't be bothered to vote called for a do-over), Moore cites the fact that Trump supporters will be more motivated to get off their couches and cast their ballot while many in the Democratic base are disenchanted with Hillary Clinton, and the long lines facing those living in “poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods" in particular, could see a poor turn out.
Moore's first reason comes down to simple addition. He looks at the fact that Republican Mitt Romney lost his bid to overthrow Barack Obama as president in 2012 by just 64 electoral votes – the same number of votes totalled by the midwestern states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
While these states have traditionally voted Democratically, they’ve each elected Republican governors in the past six years (with one exception) and are sorely suffering from the aftermath of industrial jobs lost as a result of trade agreements implemented by Mrs Clinton.
Trump has been ferociously campaigning on this to capitalise on the people's already long-standing dissatisfaction and anger, and if he's able to secure those four states along with the usual die-hard Republican ones, he may very well rise to presidency.
The last stand of the angry white man
Another thing Moore fears is the rise of the “endangered white male” who is struggling to come to terms with their ever diminishing stranglehold on power in an increasingly liberal world. As Moore puts it from inside their minds, “This monster, the ‘Feminazi’, the thing that as Trump says, ‘bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,’ has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House!”
The Hillary problem
A major thing in Trump's favour is also Hillary herself and the way her old-school politics have disenchanted millennials and young women in particular.
“Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest," he says.
"No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot."
The depressed Sanders vote
Unlike Trump supporters, Moore categorises many of Hilary’s voters, particularly the younger generations who rallied behind Bernie Sanders, as “depressed voters”. He notes, “the important difference being that while they may drag themselves to the polls to cast a ballot against Trump, they won’t be convincing all their friends to come with them."
A fact exasperated he says, by her “picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millennials that their vote is important to Hillary."
The Jesse Ventura effect
Moore's final point is the often all too underestimated threat from closet anarchists who cause mischief on voting day. As he puts it, the polling booth is "one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit.
"There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can."
Watch Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine right here:
Watch Dateline's "I'm Mr Trump" episode right here:
Watch the documentary You've Been Trumped right here: