(Transcript from World News Australia Radio)
New research shows Australia's Indigenous population is growing at a much faster rate than the non-Indigenous population.
It's expected to be more than a million by 2031.
Those figures have raised concerns government policy won't keep pace with the services needed for that larger population.
The Australian National University's Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research report, 'Population Projections', shows Australia's Indigenous population will grow by nearly 60 per cent in the next two decades.
That compares to a growth rate of about 20 per cent for non-Indigenous Australians.
The report's author, Nicholas Biddle, says population trends over the last 20 years are pointing to faster growth, and preliminary projections are needed to get a sense of what the population might look like in the future.
Dr Biddle says there's an expected Indigenous population of 1.06 million by 2031, or nearly four per cent of the population.
He says it's factors like relatively high fertility rates, rather than an increase in people choosing to identify as Indigenous, that explain the faster pace of growth.
"In separate research, both by us and also by the the Australian Bureau of Statistics, a large proportion of the growth over the last five years was probably due to people changing their identification, or at least the way they identify to census collectors. But that isn't always the case. So between 2001 and 2006, for example, there didn't appear to be much identification change."
Opposition Indigenous Affairs spokesman Shayne Neumann has welcomed the publication of the new figures, saying having a growing Indigenous population is a good thing.
"I mean, it wasn't that long ago that there was an expectation that Indigenous Australia would actually cease to exist - and we're talking about 100 years or so ago. Now, I think Australian from all backgrounds, from overseas and people whose ancestors came here tens of thousands of years ago and lived in this land and looked after it, who developed this place - I think it's terrific that we have, as part of Australia's community life, a growing Indigenous population."
Aboriginal self-determination campaigner Michael Anderson says the Indigenous population of Australia is already far higher than the official figures suggest.
Mr Anderson says Centrelink data shows more realistic figures, about three times more than the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.
He has questioned government honesty about the numbers of people who are classified as indigenous.
"Well, I think the government is concerned about the fact that if they release the dat properly then they would have to review the boundaries of electorates, because there's a very disproportionate number of Aboriginal people who are not being represented, mainly because a) they're not on the electoral role because they don't see themselves as Australian citizens; but b) in terms of determining the number of politicians in parliament, you will find that there should be an increase because the Aboriginal population has hardly ever been determined, really."
The Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research report also projects that the Indigenous population will age, although it will remain younger than the general population.
Author Nicholas Biddle says the projections were based on assuming no change in fertility or mortality but reflecting their patterns over the last 15-20 years.
Dr Biddle says a steady but consistent migration from remote to regional areas and to major metropolitan centres is expected to continue.
And he says that urbanisation is also contributing to the higher growth rate of the Indigenous population.
"In urban areas upwards of 80, close to 85 per cent of partnered Indigenous Australians have a non-Indigenous partner. So what that means is you have kids born from an Indigenous male, non-Indigenous female, or Indigenous female, non-Indigenous male. And because the kids of those mixed partnerships tend to be identified as being Indigenous, and we expect will continue to be into the future, you have an additional contribution to the growth of the urban population. In remote areas where you have very low rates of intermarriage, that additional contribution to the population isn't present."
Nicholas Biddle says the greater numbers of Indigenous people expected in Australian cities and large towns will bring some benefits to Indigenous communities.
He points to better mainstream services available and a broader range of job opportunities.
But Dr Biddle also says there'll be some ramifications for Indigenous culture.
"You have greater difficulty in providing Indigenous-specific services, greater difficulties in providing services on country and maintaining those practices like Indigenous language, like Indigenous culture, like maintenance of country which are easier in non-urban areas. Not to say they can't occur, it just becomes a bit more difficult, and importantly a bit more difficult for governments to support."
The federal Opposition has wasted no time using the ANU research to call on the Government to quarantine the Indigenous Affairs budget from its search for ways to cut spending costs.
Opposition Indigenous Affairs spokesman Shayne Neumann says the growing Indigenous population has clear implications for government policies and any cuts now will have long-term impacts.
"They're in power now and they've got to, having raised expectations, fulfill those expectations. So we're going to see a massive boom in population for indigenous Australia and therefore there'll be need for even more funding in terms of employment education, training, health and hospital funding and some serious political will, not just rhetoric behind this. It's not the time to sacrifice Indigenous affairs funding on the altar of the so-called budget emergency."
Activist Michael Anderson says the government is going to regret not acknowledging the rapid increase in population growth.
"The population now is coming together realising that if we are to succeed in terms of achieving our ambitions for self-determination and protection of our cultural heritage then, of course, they will need to unify and they know that they will not be able to win this fight. And of course the movements starting, like the sovereignty movement, which if we model that on the land rights movement of the 1970s, you're going to get a very big number of people pushing one line of thought, and the Australian government really won't know what to do when this hits them."
