Higher interest rates needed to lower house prices

Analysts say a 2 per cent lift in mortgage rates could prompt a fall in Australian house prices but it may be some time off given the latest house price data.

House prices continue to rise

House prices continue to rise Source: AAP

The Bureau of Statistics says capital city house prices rose nearly 8 per cent in 2016.

That means collectively Australia's 9.8 million residential dwellings are worth $6.4 trillion, while the average home is worth $656,800.
Value of homes
Source: ABS
Sydney and Melbourne drove the price gains, both up by more than 10 per cent last year, followed by Hobart.
2016 house price moves
2016 house price moves Source: ABS
BIS Oxford Economics Residential Property Senior Manager, Angie Zigomanis says Australia's biggest cities are expensive.

"Sydney's prices have gone up about 80 per cent in the last four years, Melbourne probably 50 to 60 per cent," he said.

The Reserve Bank is worried, revealing in its March board meeting minutes today that "recent data continued to suggest that there had been a build-up of risks associated with the housing market."

Senior Analyst at Shaw and Partners, David Spotswood says low interest rates are to blame.

"You read a lot about the supply of apartments, Chinese buying, but the dominate factor in the determination of house prices is interest rates, interest rates, the availability of credit and if people have got a job or not, it is as simple mathematical equation," he said.
He adds that cheap credit is encouraging borrowers despite soft wages growth.

"House prices were five times yearly salary, now they are 8 times," Mr Spotswood said.

But credit won't remain cheap forever.

Mr Spotswood says a 2 per cent lift in mortgage rates, or the official cash rate, would prompt a 5 to 10 per cent fall in house prices nationally.

"The way we come up with that is, if you look at historically when house prices have fallen it's when interest costs have been about 33 per cent of wages, and at the moment they're at 25 per cent," he said.

"So they look ok, but if interest rates went up by 2 per cent that would take that up to 33 per cent and that would cause some problems for house prices."

The Reserve Bank's official cash rate currently sits at a record low 1.5 per cent.
"Interest rates of 1.5 per cent in any historical context are incredibly low so over the medium term, 2 to 5 years, there is every chance of cash rates of 3.5 per cent in Australia, in fact if they weren't 3.5 per cent something would be wrong," Mr Spotswood said.

While the RBA has indicated official rates may stay on hold for now, the commercial banks are lifting mortgage rates independent of the Reserve, prompting calls for borrowers to be more cautious.

"Have a buffer to allow for higher interest rates, and use that buffer now to pay down your mortgage instead of spending it on other things as well," advises Mr Zigomanis.
The Feed: Could you move to Tamworth?

Share
3 min read

Published

Updated

By Ricardo Goncalves


Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world