If, as predicted, the Morrison government loses the Wentworth by-election, it will have a minority on the floor of the lower house.
Although the Coalition would have 75 members and the non-government parties and independents would have 75 members, the Coalition supplies the Speaker (who only votes when a vote is tied).
This would leave the Coalition with 74 on the floor of the house, with the possibility of 75 votes opposing it.
The Morrison government could offer the speakership to one of the cross-bench members or a disaffected opposition member in order to restore its majority on the floor. But given the Gillard government’s unhappy experience with making Peter Slipper as Speaker during its minority government, it would seem unlikely the Morrison government would take the same path.
This is especially so given the relatively short period left until an election is expected in May.
Does this mean there could be a change of government without an election?
Technically, a government may fall on a vote of no-confidence and a new government can be formed, without an election occurring, if the incoming government can command the confidence of the lower house.
However, on the current numbers, that appears to be inconceivable.
This is because the Australian Labor Party only holds 69 seats, which is significantly fewer than the Coalition’s numbers on the floor of the House.
The rest of the non-government seats are, or are likely to be, held by three independents: Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie and (subject to confirmation) Kerryn Phelps, along with Adam Bandt from the Australian Greens, Bob Katter from Katter’s Australian Party and Rebekha Sharkie from the Centre Alliance.
They support views across the political spectrum and would be extremely unlikely, in a bloc, to support Labor to form government.
Moreover, even if it had the united support of the cross-bench, once Labor had to supply a Speaker, it would be in the same position as the Morrison government, having a minority on the floor of the House.
So unless the numbers changed dramatically - for example, through MPs defecting from one party to another or changes in seats in other by-elections - this is not going to occur.
It is also in the Labor Party’s political interests to have the backing of the people in an election when it takes office.
It would, therefore, be likely to bide its time until an election.
Does the government have to prove to the Governor-General that it has the confidence of the lower house?
As the Morrison government is already in office, it does not have to convince the Governor-General of anything.
The Governor-General has no role to play unless Morrison resigns, or requests a dissolution, or unless extreme circumstances arise that call for the dismissal of the government.
Governments can continue to operate when in minority in the lower House, particularly where no other party has majority support.
The Gillard minority government continued to function and pass legislation for a full term, despite being in minority in both Houses.
