After a hot Christmas Eve with temperatures into the 30s across the state, Melbourne is forecast for a sunny Christmas Day at 29 degrees.
However, the timing of a weak southerly change across the state's south on Christmas Day will determine how hot things get.
Senior Meteorologist Dean Stewart says the forecast change will bring some relief.
In Melbourne, it's expected late morning, making for a comfortable day in the mid-20s.
However, a later change could push the temperature into the 30s.
"There's a bit of uncertainty in the timing of that change, but our best estimation at this stage is 29 degrees," Mr Stewart said.
"Even if that change does push across southern Victoria, we're expecting those very hot conditions to persist across the north.
"It's most likely going to remain dry - it's going to be a dry Christmas day right across the state and very hot conditions over the north."
Hot weather is predicted statewide for Christmas Eve, with temperatures in the low 30s over southern Victoria and the mid-to-high 30s across the north.
