Այս դրուագին մէջ կը հանդիպինք Մոնաշ Համալսարանի Քաղաքագիտութեան եւ Միջազգային Յարաբերութիւններու դոցենտ Զարեհ Ղազարեանին հետ, որպէսզի քննարկենք 2026-ի Աւստրալիոյ քաղաքական դաշտը ձեւաւորող գլխաւոր իրադարձութիւնները։ Տնտեսական մարտահրաւէրներէն ու տան մատչելիութենէն մինչեւ «Մէկ Ազգ»-ի (One Nation) աճող ազդեցութիւնը եւ համաշխարհային հակամարտութիւններուն հետեւանքները, կ'ուսումնասիրենք այն առաջնահերթութիւնները, որոնց Աւստրալիոյ կառավարութիւնը պէտք է լուծում տայ:
Navigating Australia's Political Landscape: Key Issues for 2026
Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, Politics and International Relations at Monash University Credit: Dr Zareh Ghazarian
In this episode, we sit down with Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian Politics and International Relations at Monash University to discuss the key events shaping Australia's political landscape for 2026. From economic challenges and housing affordability to the rising influence of One Nation and the implications of global conflicts, we explore the priorities the Australian government must address.
Transcript
Welcome to today's interview, where we discuss key events shaping Australia's future at home and abroad. Leadership changes, shifting policies, and global conflicts are set to influence Australia's direction. Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, Politics and International Relations at Monash University, will shed light on political developments and global impacts. Welcome to SBS Armenian.
Thank you so much for having me, Vahe.
What are the anticipated significant developments in Australian federal politics for two thousand and twenty-six, and which major issues should the government prioritize, during this period?
Twenty twenty-six will be a significant year in Australian politics. There have been a few important challenges for the current government coming up this year, and it is of course the first year after the twenty twenty-five election. Back in May twenty twenty-five, Labor won very comfortably, the election. What we have now, however, are a few challenges for the Labor Party in government. I think first and foremost, the health of the economy is the big one. It is very fragile, of course, since the start of COVID, and that's the global economy. And what we've seen is inflation and the rising cost of living, which have been really prominent issues in Australian politics over recent years. So I think the government's focus is going to be very much on this, and any change in interest rates will have, significant impacts on the government's standing in the community. Of course, the conflict in the Middle East has also the potential to put even more pressure on inflation as it may, increase the cost of fuel. As fuel increases, of course, it will cost more to travel and to transport goods. So, these extra costs we'd expect would be passed on to consumers, which would push prices up even more. So, managing the domestic economy is going to be a major challenge for the government, as is of course, housing availability and affordability, which have been major issues in Australia for recent years. We've seen that the federal and state governments have been trying to find new ways of increasing housing stock. In Victoria, the, Labor government has proposed activity centers which aim to build hundreds of thousands of new homes across established suburbs, especially those around public transport hubs. The Victorian opposition, the Liberal and National parties, have proposed a different approach to housing, and they've been focused on trying to speed up home building approvals, and building new homes in regional areas. So there's another very important policy development there. And of course, in Victoria, we do have a state election due, in November, so housing is going to be very prominent for those in Victoria. And I think, migration is also going to be a very important talking point and a point of policy focus this year. With housing and cost of living so prominent, there will be increased debates about whether Australia's migration rate needs to be changed, or whether different approaches may need to be employed. For the parties themselves, this year is going to be very important. We've seen some instability, of course, in the opposition over recent months, but maintaining stability and maintaining unity in this challenging period is going to be a very important, matter for the major parties, whether it is the Labor Party, whether it's, the Coalition, Liberal and National parties. Party stability is going to be a big test this year.
What changes in voting patterns or public opinion do you foresee during two thousand and twenty-six?
I think linked to this idea of party unity is what's been visible in opinion polls, and that is the emergence of One Nation. One Nation, of course, Pauline Hanson created One Nation in the late nineteen nineties. So, the party and, and Pauline Hanson has been around in Australian politics for almost thirty years. What they've been doing, however, One Nation, is that they've been gaining ground. So, while the major parties have been losing support in reported opinion polls, One Nation has been building support. And it's been remarkable to see how popular the party is becoming. It is now very much, seen to be in the top three of parties in Australia when it comes to popularity. And that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Labor Party, but in particular, it's going to put a lot of pressure on the Liberal Party and National parties. This is because One Nation tends to do best in electorates where the National Party does best. So, rural and regional electorates, especially in New South Wales and Queensland, where there's, primary production, which is an important feature of the economy, One Nation does-- has been doing very well in polls. And this is going to be tested, in a few weeks when there's the by-election to, select the person to replace Susan Ley, the former Liberal leader who resigned from her role and there's going to be a by-election in the seat of Farrer where One Nation is contesting. So we'll get a sense of how real the One Nation challenge is, to the major parties at this forthcoming by-election.
Continuing the discussion on the Liberal Party, how effective do you believe the opposition was during two thousand and twenty-five and twenty-six, especially considering the coalition's divisions in two thousand and twenty-five, and the change in Liberal leadership? Additionally, how well do you think the new opposition leader and the shadow cabinet will be able to hold the government accountable?
Twenty twenty-five was a very bad year for the Liberal Party in particular, and also for the Coalition, remembering that the Coalition split, soon after the twenty-five election, and then they split less than twelve months after that once more. Part of the challenge for the Liberal Party as the major coalition party has been about building cohesion between those MPs who are much more socially conservative and those who are, favoring more socially progressive ideas. And this has become a real problem for the Liberal Party over the last ten or so years. There's been that division that they just are unable to, address. There's been that division which they just have been unable, to build bridges across. So what we've seen is the Liberal Party very much struggle organizationally and struggle about who determines will give it, give it the best chance of winning the next election. So as we know, Susan Ley, of course, was deposed in favor of Angus Taylor. Angus Taylor has, positioned himself as a much more conservative figure. It's too early to tell, obviously, as to how he is going. But the initial signs for the Liberal Party starting twenty twenty-six is that there's a lot of work to do, and the party needs to convince voters that they are ready, and they present as an alternative government, and they avoid talking about themselves. Because as we know, once parties show, examples or incidents of division within their own ranks, then voters tend to turn off. So this is a very important year for the Coalition to get itself ready, because next year in twenty twenty-seven, we're going to be running into an election, by mid-twenty twenty-eight. So this is where the hard work starts for the Coalition.
What are One Nation's forecasts for the upcoming Victorian elections?
In November twenty twenty-six, there will be a state election in Victoria. We have, of course, fixed election terms, and One Nation seems to be polling very strongly. Victoria has been a state where One Nation has struggled in previous elections. For example, at the twenty twenty-two election, One Nation won just point three percent of the vote in the Lower House. But it was, of course, able to win a seat in the Upper House, even though it was able to win just two percent of the vote. But One Nation is gaining momentum in Victoria, and the party appears to be doing very, very well. And, and I think one poll shows One Nation to be around twenty-four percent, which is almost the same, as Labor and the, the Coalition. So it's doing very, very strongly. One Nation has to convince Victorians that it has a policy platform, and that it can implement and, and influence policy if it was to be given the chance. So far, Victorians have been very resistant to voting One Nation. If the momentum keeps up, as we're seeing at the moment, in November twenty twenty-six, we'll get a sense of whether that support we're seeing in the opinion polls will translate into practice, as people go to vote, for the next state government.
How might the US and Israel's conflict with Iran affect Australia, especially in terms of energy markets, foreign policy, and international response?
Aside from the international impacts that we're seeing, at the moment, of course, for Australia, there may be some significant challenges ahead. Energy pricing will be crucial, as well as energy security. These are really important matters, and they can potentially cause a lot of damage to Australia's manufacturing trade. Broader economic impacts will be-- can be felt if there is, energy shortages or energy prices go up. But Australia, of course, also has been working to build closer relationships with other middle powers. The Prime Minister of Canada was here last week, and he spoke very warmly towards Australia. And this is all in the context of the Middle East conflict, where there is the potential for Australian Defense Forces to potentially be involved in operations. There's been some speculation and some media reports, but no announcement, yet, from-- about this from the government. But that is also something that potentially may impact Australia by what's going on overseas.
Will energy policy continue to play a significant role in Australian politics during two thousand and twenty-six?
It will be a huge issue and something that will impact the rest of the world. In Australia, of course, the challenge is transportation of goods. As we've discussed before if energy prices go up, if there's an increase in fuel costs, then all of this will impact the finances of individuals, of communities, and ultimately have an impact, on the economic performance in the country. So what's happening in terms of energy prices can have a potentially a huge impact on Australia's economics in twenty twenty-six.
What are the main objectives of the Royal Commission on Antisemitism, and what challenges does the Commission anticipate in investigating, reporting, and addressing antisemitism in Australia?
Following the Bondi terrorist attacks in December, there were calls to establish a Royal Commission into antisemitism. And if you recall, it was something that, that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was initially, very hesitant about. But ultimately, he changed his mind and as we know, a Royal Commission has been called. Royal Commission, it's important just to remember what it is. It's the most powerful public inquiry that can be made in Australia. So it can hold hearings, it can call witnesses, and it can make decisions for policy change. So it is very, very powerful and it's a significant moment, to have a, a Royal Commission. So the expectation is that the Royal Commission will make an impact. And it is going to be looking at the nature of antisemitism in Australia, especially looking at, at religious extremism is going to be one of the areas of focus. The Royal Commission, I think, will also try to create new approaches to tackle antisemitism, and also seek to strengthen social cohesion in Australia. And all of this is in the context of ASIO, which has also been long concerned about extremism in Australia. So this will be an opportunity to provide new information that may inform government and intelligence agencies in their work. So very important thing to be looking at this year is going to be the Royal Commission, their findings, and what ways forward they point to.
Thank you, Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, for sharing your views on Australian politics and world events. We appreciate your time and clear explanation.
Thank you so much for having me. [outro jingle]
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