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Oranje wereldkampioen? Volgens de berekeningen van Joachim gaat het dit jaar gebeuren!
Credit: Background photo: AAP / Michael Nigro / ANP/Ramon van Flymen/ANP/Sipa USA / AAP IMAGES
Het is inmiddels een traditie dat de Duitse econoom Joachim Klement met behulp van zijn computermodel voorspelt wie het WK voetbal wint. Twaalf jaar geleden begon hij hiermee als een geintje, maar zijn voorspellingen zijn tot nu toe altijd uitgekomen. Goed nieuws: dit jaar wijst zijn model Nederland aan als winnaar.
Transcript
Presentatrice
Yeah, Joachim, um, is football your hobby?
Joachim Klement
Well, it's... I'm German, so obviously football is my hobby. Uh, it, it's probably the hobby of most people across Europe, and especially every four years when the World Cup comes around.
Presentatrice
And you thought, "I need to find a way to combine this with my work as a economist"?
Joachim Klement
Um, no, actually 12 years ago when I started this, I thought this was a nice way to show how, um, full of themselves economists are, thinking they can predict absolutely everything if they, even if they have no idea what is going on. Now, the problem is that it all went horribly wrong, because 12 years ago when I did it for the 2014 World Cup, I predicted Germany as the winner, and then Germany won. And then I did it again in order to show that it was just a fluke, and I got it right again, and a third time. So now I'm doing the fourth time, and, uh, I hope I got it, get it wrong this time, because everybody now suddenly thinks that I have a crystal ball or something.
Presentatrice
Uh, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, let's go back to what you said. You hope you've got it wrong. I think we have to end this conversation then. 'Cause you predicted that the Netherlands is gonna win. Yay.
Joachim Klement
Yeah. Yeah, indeed. Indeed. It, it, I was a bit surprised when it came out of my model and the simulations that the Netherlands would win, particularly given that the simulation showed that the Netherlands has a very, very difficult path to the final even. Not only does it have a difficult group with Morocco, uh, in it, but in, on its way to the final, I predict that the Netherlands will beat both Spain and France, which-
Presentatrice
Oh, we need that. We need to, to beat Spain 'cause we have a trauma. It's like the '74 one, but maybe a bit smaller. But yeah, we need that. Would be great.
Joachim Klement
Well, as a German, I can tell you that 1974 was an absolutely correct result.
Presentatrice
[laughs]
Joachim Klement
Uh, there was absolutely nothing wrong with it. [laughs]
Presentatrice
Oh, dear.
Joachim Klement
But, but admittedly, um, I think that, now everybody thinks, um, that France and Spain are the two best teams in the world right now. Um, but if you look at my model, um, it uses economic fundamentals and climate fundamentals to assess how strong a team should be, and the closer two teams are in strength, the more luck plays a role in any individual match. And the Netherlands is actually very close in strength to France and Spain. It's not that much, that far behind. So a little bit of luck and just kind of getting a nil-nil or a one-one past extra time, and you end up in a penalty shootout, and there I would say, you know, the Netherlands can easily beat Spain and France this way.
Presentatrice
Hmm. This is something, of course, that was picked up by the Dutch media. They probably love you there now.
Joachim Klement
Yeah. I suddenly became very, very popular in the Netherlands, and this is great for me because I like to go to, uh, Zeeland, uh, at the end of each year on vacation. Uh, I just fear that if my prediction doesn't come, uh, true this time around, I might not be allowed back into the country in December.
Presentatrice
[laughs] Yeah, that might be right indeed. So, um, uh, let's go through that predicted path. Um, we have Japan, Sweden to beat, of course, and Tunisia.
Joachim Klement
As I said, uh, already, I think, uh, the Netherlands has a very, very tough group to begin with. Um, uh, but the good news is that we are now in, for the first time in this expanded World Cup with 48 teams, out of which 32 make it into the knockout stages. So, uh, I have no worries whatsoever that even if, uh, there will be tight matches against Japan, which I think Japan is a kind of a dark horse, uh- ... which is, I also predict that Japan will knock out Brazil in this World Cup, uh, which makes me very unpopular in Brazil these days, but that's a different story. Um, and, uh, even, even if, uh, the Netherlands and Holland would, would lose to Japan, it would still be second in the group or one of the best third place teams and would make it into the knockout stages. So in this expanded format, I don't really have a lot of worries that the Netherlands might not make it out of the group stage.
Presentatrice
Hmm.
Joachim Klement
We then go to, uh, the, the knockout stages. The first knockout stage, uh, match is against Morocco. Now, that is, if you think about back four years ago, Morocco was third in the World Cup. Uh, they just, uh, officially won the Africa Cup of Nations, uh, because Senegal was stripped of the title. Now, to me, Senegal still is the winner of the Africa Cup of Nations, but Morocco definitely is one of the best teams. Um, but, uh, you also have to be aware that Morocco actually is not as good as it was four years ago, um, while the Netherlands is about as good as it was four years ago, in my view of, uh, maybe a little bit better. Uh, the fun thing is talking to a lot of Dutch people over the last month or so, um, they all think that you're worse than, than four years ago because Virgil and, and others are now four years older and past their peak. Um, but I think as a, as a team, as a group of, of, uh, players, uh, you are as good, if not better than, than four years ago.
Presentatrice
Mm-hmm.
Joachim Klement
And then comes an easy one, second knockout stage against Canada, um, one of the hosts and, uh, probably w- uh, clear underdog against Netherlands. Um, that should be an easy one, but then it gets really tough. If everything goes to plan, you might, uh, face FranceIn the quarterfinals. Now that is one where, you know, if you would repeat this game over and over again, France would be more likely to win, uh, against the Netherlands because it is obviously one of the, the best teams in the world right now. But as I say in the note, on any given day in any given match, luck plays a, an important role, and in fact, about 50% of the outcome is given by luck.
Presentatrice
Hmm.
Joachim Klement
Uh, and all you need is, is one bad day for Kylian Mbappé and co. and, or one good day for, for Holland, and you make it past that and, and to the semifinals.
Presentatrice
Oh, I just heard- ... today that, uh, Mbappé has some injury at the moment. He should be okay for the World Cup, but the same happened to the Dutch team, Simons. He won't be there.
Joachim Klement
And I'm a big, I'm a big fan of Xavi Simons, and I'm very unhappy that he has, uh, this m- major injury that keeps him out of the World Cup. Um, but yeah, you know, every team will have to struggle at some point or another.
Presentatrice
Well, this could throw a spanner in the works of your, you know, prediction, these kind of things. Injuries
Joachim Klement
... absolutely. The first thing that a colleague of mine asked yesterday morning when I came into the office, "So with Simons out of the World Cup, does that change your prediction?" I was like, "Well, I can't change my prediction now," but, uh, uh, this is why I said it's like 50% of each match is luck. Uh, it's like one yellow card suspension, one injury, and all of a sudden things turn upside down.
Presentatrice
And we might not beat France, but if we do, you say we will also beat Spain in the semifinals. Penalties.
Joachim Klement
Yes, so in the semifinals it will be Spain or Belgium according to my model. You would be favored against the Red Devils, but you would obviously be the underdog against Spain. Uh, but this is a case where I think because you've had such a tough draw to get into the semifinal, uh, if Holland makes it into the semifinals, it will be in a situation where it already has a lot of confidence that it can beat anyone. Uh, remember that at this point you've, you've beaten France and Morocco and, and a lot of other good teams. So, um, that is something where I think it will r- literally be a 50/50 whether you beat Spain or not, and if you beat Spain, then the path is clear to the World Cup.
Presentatrice
Yeah. We beat Spain, and we will face Portugal according to your predictions.
Joachim Klement
Which apparently is your Angstgegner, uh, in, in-
Presentatrice
Is it?
Joachim Klement
... the Netherlands. [laughs] That's what I've been told by some Dutch people. [laughs]
Presentatrice
Yeah, so, um, Portugal, we, we're gonna beat them. Where is Germany in all of this? I mean, I'm Dutch. I would like to know how you guys will be doing. [laughs]
Joachim Klement
Uh, not that well. Um, now Germany is much better than the last World Cup. I mean, we didn't make it out of the group stage the last two World Cups, which, you know, is very, very unusual for us. Has never happened before, but, uh, we are in a better position now. Unfortunately, we have been drawn that if we win our group, which seems likely because we've got a very weak group, um, we will meet in the round of 16 France, who will likely win its group. And let me be very clear, I might be a Germany fan, but when it comes to Germany versus France, there is no chance Germany wins. [laughs]
Presentatrice
No. No. No, that's a bummer. And the Socceroos, Australia, have you got anything on them?
Joachim Klement
Yes. Uh, so they will also make it out of the group stage, but then very quickly run into Belgium, and, uh, that in my model will be the end of the Socceroos in that tournament because Belgium is, despite all, a strong team and stronger than, than Australia.
Presentatrice
Yeah, what happens with your model when this goes all wrong this year?
Joachim Klement
Hopefully less hype in four years' time when I do it again. Uh, because having been right three times in a row, it feels like I have become more popular and more in demand every single time. Now I always stress that, as I said, 50% in each match is luck, which means that for the prediction of the World Cup winner, more than 50% of it is due to luck. Uh, and just because I was right three times in a row doesn't mean that I have some magic crystal ball, and I'm just kind of brilliant at it. Um, yet the more often you get it right, the more people think you have some special secret sauce, and I would like to stop, uh, uh, after this one-
Presentatrice
After this one
Joachim Klement
... or maybe after next.
Presentatrice
After this one.
Joachim Klement
After this one.
Presentatrice
[laughs]
Joachim Klement
Okay, yeah, yeah. That's fine. It's fine.
Presentatrice
Let's please.
Joachim Klement
I mean, I mean, being German, I will still admit that I think the Netherlands deserves to win the World Cup.
Presentatrice
Oh, thank you.
Joachim Klement
It is by far the best team that has never won the World Cup. Um, uh, as I said, 1974 was fully deserved, the outcome, but, uh, I would say 2010 was probably not, and 1978 either. Um, so you're due. You should, you should win it eventually.
Presentatrice
Yeah. So, um, we'll see if you're the next Octopus Paul. Remember that one?
Joachim Klement
Yes. I remember that one. Absolutely. Absolutely. No, I like, I, I'm, I'm... I hope for an autograph from Ronald Koeman if I get it right this time. [laughs]
Presentatrice
Let's see.
Joachim Klement
Let's see. [laughs]
Presentatrice
Thank you so much, Joachim.
Joachim Klement
Well, thank you for having me.
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