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What can be expected in this year's federal election?

Boxes of information, ready for polling booths are seen at an Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) warehouse in Queanbeyan, near Canberra, Friday, March 25, 2022. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING

Boxes of information, ready for polling booths are seen at an Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) warehouse in Queanbeyan. Source: AAP

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is expected to set the date for the federal election soon, though it can't be later than the 21st of May. The polls indicate Labor has the lead, but election analysts say it's difficult to say who will win on election night.


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The federal election date has not yet been called but needs to happen on either the 7th, 14th, or 21st of May.

According to the Australian newspaper's latest Newspoll published April 4, Labor leads the Coalition on 54 to 46 per cent in the two-party preferred category.


Highlights 

  • The character of the party leaders will remain a central theme of the election campaign.
  • Labor leader Albanese and PM Scott Morrison both facing pressure to respond to allegations of bullying.
  • Some commentators say there's a possibility this federal election could result in a hung parliament.

And in the better prime minister category, the two leaders are virtually neck-and-neck, with Scott Morrison just one point ahead of Anthony Albanese at 43 versus 42 per cent.

But how much do the polls indicate which major party will win the election?

Flinders University associate professor of politics and government Haydon Manning says the polls suggest a Labor win if an election was held right now.

But he says that doesn't tell the full story.

"The poll suggests this is clearly Labor leader Anthony Albanese's election to lose. And bear in mind, the last election was somewhat like that for Mr [Bill] Shorten when he left Labor, and he did lose, but that's my frame of reference very much so. Labor are in front, reasonably comfortably in the polls. But in the past, we have seen governments in a similar position come back, particularly after they've announced the Budget, they try, as this Budget has to curry favour with many voters, it's spent quite a lot of money."


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