Can the 'bellwether' seats pick the 2022 election result too?

Sheep with bell. Photo supplied by Getty.

Bellwether. Source: Getty

Analysis by SBS of Australian Electoral Commission data, has revealed the polling stations and electorates in Australia that have successfully picked the winner of the last nine consecutive federal elections. Could these so-called 'bellwether' electorates extend their streak to 10 in a row with this year's federal election?


Thirty-one polling stations across Australia have picked the winner of the last nine consecutive federal elections on a two-party preferred basis, covering the period between 1996 and 2019.

Known as 'bellwether' seats, t he word refers to an historical practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram - a wether - leading a flock of sheep.

The 31 current 'bellwether' seats have been identified from an analysis of Australian Electoral Commission data conducted by SBS, which has located 11 such polling stations in Victoria, nine in New South Wales, six in Queensland, four in South Australia, and one in the Northern Territory.

Five of those polling stations are located in the Victorian seat of Chisholm in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, which is held by Liberal MP Gladys Liu on a margin of 0.5 per cent.

The electorate of Lindsay in western Sydney covers most of the City of Penrith and has also been held by the government of the day in the past nine elections in a row.

 

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Can the 'bellwether' seats pick the 2022 election result too? | SBS Japanese