The Canberra Liberals are struggling to get the swing they need to end Labor's 15-year reign in the ACT with nearly 30 per cent of the votes counted.
With 28.7 per cent of votes tallied at 7.40pm on Saturday there was a 2.7 per swing against the Liberals, a turnaround from the early numbers.
But that trend could be misleading because more votes have been counted in the northern electorates of Ginninderra and Yerrabi than in the south which traditionally favours the Liberals.
Labor is polling 39.4 per cent of the primary vote, the Liberals 36.2 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent.
Both major parties are on track to win 10 seats - two in each of the five electorates - in the 25 seat Legislative Assembly.
The Greens will have one in the central electorate of Kurrajong, with the remaining four up for grabs.
The Greens are a possibility to win a seat in Ginninderra.
Greens MLA Shane Rattenbury said the early count showed there was no landslide in one direction or the other.
"It will come down to the last four seats," he said on ABC TV.
The Hare-Clark voting system used in the ACT was not designed to return majority governments, Liberal MLA Vicki Dunne said.
There has only been one majority government in the territory's 27 years of self-government.
"We have always said this is a very hard road to hoe. It's going to come down to those last few figures," she told the ABC.
Mr Rattenbury agreed and predicted Canberra would be waiting until next Saturday for a final result.
The early results showed a distinct split between northern and southern Canberra.
Mrs Dunne suggested the results reflected the unpopularity of Labor's light rail project, which is only linking the northern suburbs in its first stage.
"The further away you go from the stage one of the tram route, the more unpopular it is and I think would be manifested in the fairly high vote in ... Brindabella," she told the ABC.
Retiring Labor minister Simon Corbell said while light rail had been a divisive and controversial issue, it didn't seem to be translating into a significant mood for change.
Labor MLA Chris Bourke said there could be some bias coming through in the electronic prepoll votes counted so far and it was too early to tell what the overall picture was.
"I think we will all be going to bed tonight not knowing," he told the ABC.
"At the end of the day, the polling booth results (from Saturday's voting) are not going to be known until the weeks to come."
With about 43 per cent of the vote counted at 8.30pm ABC election analyst Antony Green said he could not see a path for the Liberals to form government.
"There are a few seats in doubt but at this stage it looks like the government has been returned," he said.
"The best the Liberals can do is 11 (seats), they might get to 12."
