The NSW Liberal Party is almost certain to lose the seat of Wagga Wagga for the first time in almost 60 years.
Early results on Saturday night suggest the Liberals are bracing for defeat in the regional seat with independent candidate Joe McGirr leading as the favourite and Labor tracking second.
There is a projected swing of about 29 per cent against the government, spelling a historic loss.
Addressing supporters in his Wagga backyard on Saturday night, Dr McGirr said he was feeling "quietly optimistic" but didn't expect a result until Sunday.
The doctor and academic ruled out joining the coalition once in government.
NSW Liberal state director Chris Stone on Saturday told the party function "on current projections it will be very difficult for us to get there".
Liberal candidate Julia Ham told the subdued crowd she would consider running in March if the loss eventuated.
A troubled campaign bookended by a local corruption scandal and a messy federal leadership coup has eroded their once-safe 12.9 per cent margin, senior government sources say.
No matter the outcome, Labor candidate Dan Hayes declared the community had "made Wagga marginal again" after arriving at the election night reception to rapturous applause.
Mr Hayes said the local and national scandals had stoked community anger.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian, who didn't attend the Liberal election function on Saturday night, conceded victory would be difficult.
She'll address the media in Sydney on Sunday morning.
The premier and several of senior colleagues acknowledged Malcolm Turnbull's knifing had deterred some voters in Wagga but federal Senator Jim Molan dismissed those concerns.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack wouldn't be drawn on whether the federal coalition would be to blame for a Liberal loss saying the government wasn't intending on losing the seat.
