RBA optimism on growth not widely shared

The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate at 1.5 per cent for a 27th month in a row.

Reserve Bank of Australia building in in Sydney.

Economists predict the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the cash rate at 1.5 per cent on Tuesday. (AAP) Source: AAP

The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate at a record low of 1.5 per cent, while revising its economic growth and unemployment forecasts.

The decision at the RBA's November board meeting means the cash rate still has not moved since August 2016.

The RBA last cut the rate in August 2016 and has repeatedly signalled things are not likely to change for some time.

But governor Philip Lowe says GDP, which had been expected to grow 3.0 per cent in 2018 and 2019, was now expected to grow by 3.5 per cent in both years.


"The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3-1/2 per cent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources," Dr Lowe said in his statement on monetary policy.

"Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase."

Dr Lowe again flagged household consumption as an area of concern.

"Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined," Dr Lowe said, adding that the drought had led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector.

Dr Lowe, who also noted tightening economic conditions in some advanced economies, said the RBA had also tweaked its 2020 unemployment forecast from 5.0 per cent to 4.75 per cent.

"The improvement in the economy should see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process," Dr Lowe said.

The Australian dollar ticked up from 72.05 US cents just before the RBA decision, to 72.14 shortly after.


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Presented by Justin Sungil Park
Source: AAP

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