New economic modelling suggests Labor’s emissions reduction target could wipe $264 billion from the economy and kill-off 167,000 jobs.
Bill Shorten has faced questions for weeks over the cost of his climate change policy, but the Opposition leader has been unwilling to put a figure on it.
Brian Fisher, an economist, has released a report that forecasts a 0.8 per cent fall in growth by 2030 if Labor’s emissions reduction target of 45 per cent is adopted.
That would equate to $264 billion, but could be as high as $542 billion depending on the specifics of rules that would allow companies to buy international carbon credits to offset their obligations.
“It’s not disastrous, but it is a drop off,” Dr Fisher told ABC Radio on Thursday.
Labor’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler rubbished the “dodgy” modelling.
“This is no more credible than the last piece of rubbish he produced a week or two ago with the same utterly dodgy assumptions,” he told ABC Radio.
“This is utterly rubbish and it is utterly at odds with every other piece of analysis of this policy.” However, while Labor disputed the figures, it has steadfastly refused to put a price on its climate policies.
Dr Fisher’s modelling also predicts 167,000 fewer jobs over the next 20 years. Allowing international permits would reduce the impact of the plan, he said.
“Negative consequences for real wages and employment are projected under all scenarios, with a minimum 3 per cent reduction in real wages and 167,000 less jobs in 2030 compared to what otherwise would have occurred,” he told the Sydney Morning Herald.
Speaking to ABC’s 7.30 program last night, Mr Shorten denied Labor’s plan would put downward pressure on the economy.
“It won’t have a negative effect on economic growth,” he told Leigh Sales. “In fact, most of the mainstream modelling shows that our economy will continue to grow.”
He said not taking action on climate change would have a significant higher cost in the long-term than Labor’s initial investments.
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