The epicentre of Australian politics has shifted to Sydney's eastern suburbs where the tight by-election battle for Wentworth has thrown climate and even foreign policy into the spotlight as the government stares down the barrel of a historic defeat.
The Liberals or their predecessors have held Wentworth since federation, but polling suggests its socially progressive voters are set to punish the government over climate policy and for knifing their elected member - former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Despite Mr Turnbull having won Wentworth with a 17 per cent margin at the last election, leaked Liberal polling suggests that buffer has all but evaporated with independent Kerryn Phelps likely to wrestle the blue-ribbon seat from the federal government.
AAP
The internal polling published by The Australian this week suggests Dr Phelps has surged ahead of Liberal candidate Dave Sharma with 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
Dr Phelps, a former Australian Medical Association president and marriage equality advocate, has centred her campaign around climate change and what she argues is the government's poor response to it. She's also focused on the treatment of refugees, live animal exports and the independence of the ABC.
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Mr Sharma emerged victorious from a party preselection process dominated by a debate over gender quotas and a push for more female representation in the Liberal Party.
The former ambassador to Israel didn't even have the support of new Prime Minister Scott Morrison who reportedly backed former Woollahra deputy mayor Katherine O'Regan.
Since then, however, Mr Sharma has been marketed as a cabinet-ready candidate, who already has the prime minister's ear on a potential Middle Eastern embassy move.
Party elder John Howard was wheeled out this week to campaign for Mr Sharma and describe him as "first class".
Mr Morrison on Tuesday announced he was considering moving the Australian embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and credited Mr Sharma with putting the case.
