The SMH expects in its recent editorial that Opposition Leader Bill Shortens low approval ratings are still improving, but Labor could fall short in Queensland and especially NSW, where economic growth is leading the nation.
Opposition Leader Bill Shortens low approval ratings are still improving at the halfway point of this marathon campaign, just as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's keep sliding.
But Labor's 51-49 poll lead on a two-party preferred basis masks significant challenges ahead for the party to gain the 19 seats on revised boundaries it will need to form government on July 2.
What's more, Labor's primary vote is stuck 12 points behind the Liberals' in NSW, where electoral redistributions have notionally given the party two Coalition seats but where it also needs to win eight more. It's 50-50 on two-party preferred in the most electorally important state.
While Labor is improving in Queensland where it hopes to gain three seats, it still lags the Liberal-Nationals there 35-48 on primaries.
Labor could pick up seats in smaller states and Victoria but fall short in Queensland and especially NSW, where economic growth is leading the nation.
