Labor controls 45 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly.
The loss of one seat would jeopardise a clear majority of the Andrews government.
The Labor Party will strive to increase its state-wide two-party preferred vote to gain some of the Coalition seats and to avoid the Greens grabbing the balance of power.
The Labor Party needs to gain Ripon (LIB 0.8%), Morwell (1.8%), or grab one of the three Green seats to accommodate any loss of seats.
The Coalition, on the other hand, needs to gain eight seats to win majority government, which means a uniform swing of 3.0% is needed.
The four critical bellwether seats are situated in the south-east of Melbourne: Bentleigh, Carrum, Frankston and Mordialloc.
The Guardian says these four seats are all held by Labor by margins of 2.1% or less, and were the only four seats Labor picked up from the Liberals in 2014. According to the ABC, they have been won by the party forming government at the last four elections and have changed party at the last two.
Other key races to watch in the state election is the Labor-Greens contests in the inner city – Melbourne, Northcote, Richmond and Brunswick – as these contests could decide if Labor wins a majority in the Legislative Assembly.
