Opinion: 'New Cold War' might be even cooler than the old one

The US–Russia relations have progressively cooled down in the last three years to a degree that some analysts call the 'New Cold War'. Speaking to SBS Russian, Dr Andrey Kazantsev, the Director of the Analytical Centre of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, cautiously warns about its own dangers.

Face masks

Face masks depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at a street shop in St.Petersburg, Russia, Friday, Dec. 23, 2016. Source: AAP

"The so-called 'New Cold War' is a millennial-coined term with a nature that can pose threats of a larger scale than during the 60s and 70s," Dr Andrey Kazantsev tells SBS Russian.

The Director of the Analytical Centre of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, says it is the lack of mutual respect between the Russian and American elite that is a concern. 

“During the Old Cold War there was a huge mutual respect between Washington and Moscow. There was parity of power and many different institutions and treaties were on place,” says Dr Kazantsev.
“When the Cold War only started, there was something like today, there were no treaties, no balance of power and this is a dangerous situation because everything can happen.”
He compares the current situation with the early 50s with Stalin running the communist machine of the USSR and Truman shielding the Eastern block from the ‘Red Scare’.

“When the Cold War only started, there was something like today, there were no treaties, no balance of power and this is a dangerous situation because everything can happen,” says Dr Kazantsev.

One of the disputable issues between the two states remains the Syrian war. Dr Kazantsev talks about both Russia and the Western countries’ approach to fighting the self-appointed Islamic State (IS).

“The basic difference in relation to the threat coming from the IS in the Middle East between Russia and the West is in relation to Syrian regime," he says.

"The Russian position is that the existing Syrian regime, the Assad regime, is the best guarantee from dissolution of the Syrian state and, therefore, Assad should remain in his post or existing government should be somehow reformed but Syria, as a single state, should be saved,” says Dr Andrey Kazantsev.
During the Obama administration both failed to reach a consensus over the Syrian crisis, and the chasm in the American-Russian relations kept growing.

In the recent TV series, The Putin Interviews, produced by Oliver Stone, the Russian president outlines that his government will support the elected and therefore legitimate leader – Bashar al-Assad. Putin sets it as a non-negotiable fact.

However, Dr Kazantsev suggests that this key point of difference might no longer be as relevant for the Trump’s office.

"Western position is that Assad should go. This is now the main disagreement. This was more important during Obama precedency, because Tramp’s administration sometimes says it’s not so important for them [whether] Assad stays or Assad goes."

Dr Kazantsev came to Australia for a couple of days as a keynote speaker at a Canberra’s conference ‘A Century of revolutionary change: 1917–2017’ that appears to be a symbolic event in the times of disturbance like today. 

The Putin Interviews is available to stream now at SBS OnDemand. Watch the first episode below:




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By Olga Klepova

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