2010 prognostics

What does the 2010 season behold for the peloton? In this first of a two parter Anthony Tan puts in his five Euros’ worth to lend his predictions.

My esteemed colleague, Mike Tomalaris, blogged about a wish list in his most recent column on Cycling Central, to which many of you replied enthusiastically.

I, however, have never been much of a wisher. Wishing leads to wishful thinking, I say.

When I was a kid, the few things wished for I never received (of course, that was until I got a job), which turned me into a pessimist-cum-realist-cum-at times cynical sports writer (after the litany of doping scandals the past decade, how could I not?), so here's what I think will happen in some of cycling's main events in the first half of 2010.

I'll get back to you in the next fortnight to give you my predictions post the Giro d'Italia.

Aussie nationals – men's road race, Jan 10

Will Michael Rogers and Adam Hansen make the same mistake again in the sleepy hollow of Buninyong, and let an outsider like defending champ Peter McDonald steal line honours? I can't see that happening.

I reckon 2010 is Mick's year for donning the green and gold jersey of Aussie national road champion. And I'll throw in an equal outside bet to Wes Sulzberger, Robbie McEwen (after what he's been through, wouldn't it be great if he did the triple?), and Matt Lloyd.

Tour Down Under, Jan 19-24

Since this event was bestowed ProTour status and the world's best teams descended on our shores, the past two editions of this race have been won by sprinters who can climb the 3km, 7.6% brute that is Old Willunga Hill – which is now tackled twice.

Had André Greipel not crashed out, he may well have won again in 2009, evidenced by his convincing opening stage victory in Mawson Lakes. By the end of the season, he was second only to his team-mate Mark Cavendish in victories amassed.

He is beatable, though: those with a real chance include the likes of Thor Hushovd and Alessandro Petacchi – but those guys won't be here in January.

So unless this imposing German unit crashes out again, or a break goes and decides the final podium (unlikely), I fear Robbie, Alby and Brownie et al. will be fighting for the minor places.

Milano-Sanremo, Mar 20

This year in 'La Primavera', he proved the pundits completely wrong, who believed at 23 years of age, Mark Cavendish's legs lacked the distance for a 300km Classic. In 2010, Milano-Sanremo will be his to lose.

It will be interesting to see how Cav' fares without the aid of George Hincapie, who last time round, dragged him to the front in the final kilometres and dropped him off within striking distance of the line.

Such is his dominance in a field sprint, the only way to beat Cavendish will be to drop him on the final climb of the Poggio, or if you're name's Fabian Cancellara, go for a final kilometre burst and catch the Manx Missile and his team off-guard.

Paris-Roubaix, Apr 11

His indiscretions with the white stuff aside, Tom Boonen is quickly becoming a byword for success at 'The Hell of the North'.

Like a hand to a glove, his body is perfectly made for the interminable cobbles riders must face, rattle and roll over if they are to win what is unquestionably the toughest one-day race in the world, and 'Tornado Tom' showed enough end-of-season form in 2009 to indicate he'll have his head screwed back on for the Spring Classics of 2010.

Should 'Tommeke' not perform on the day, Cancellara, Stuart O'Grady, Alessandro Ballan, Heinrich Haussler (who's my pick to win Flanders) and Stijn Devolder all have about the same chance to win.

A solid outside bet would be Martijn Maaskant.

Giro d'Italia, May 8-30

I find it's much harder to pick a winner at the Giro than the Tour de France.

It's quite often a more open race because not every rider goes into the event hoping to reach 100 percent form by the second to final week. And then they're always a bunch of idiots (often Italian) who still think it's okay to tackle themselves to the eyeballs, get caught, deny having taken anything untoward, later change their minds and admit their sins, and rejoin the peloton 18-24 months later, largely unrepentant.

Like the 2010 Tour, next year's Giro is not time trial heavy – just 69.1 kilometres in total – but unlike the TdF TTs, the Giro's battles against the clock include a 32.5km team time trial as well as a 12.9km mountain time trial to the infamous Plan de Corones.

Armed with a stronger team and confidence renewed following his world championship victory (not to mention a Vuelta win if not for a botched wheel change), I reckon this Giro course has Cadel Evans' name written all over it.

Many of his Grand Tour rivals will be gunning for the Tour – think Contador, Armstrong, the Schlecks, Wiggins and Vande Velde – so why not put your eggs in the Italian basket?

However, it's not as if the Giro will be without contenders – I have no doubt 2008 Tour champ Carlos Sastre and '06 Giro winner Ivan Basso will be two of Evans' toughest rivals.

Disclaimer: No responsibility accepted for money lost on wagers based on my predictions. Still, throwing a fiver to win won't see your home repossessed anytime soon.