A clearer picture emerges

Only a handful of riders now have the ability to win the Giro d''Italia, Philip Gomes takes a quick look at the contenders.

As the Giro d'Italia comes down to its last days a murky picture is becoming clearer, with the eventual winner now to be found among a handful of riders.

In a way the race has become a case of who will run out of road first, David Arroyo or his pursuers consisting of Ivan Basso, Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre and Vincenzo Nibali.

Not that the man in third place is totally out of the picture, but Saxo Bank's Richie Porte is still a largely unproven entity despite his well calculated riding.

With so many unknowns surrounding Porte it's probably best to place him outside the more veteran campaigners and hope that his amazing run continues - with a top ten placing and possession of the young riders jersey more than anyone would have expected at the start in Amsterdam.

The rabbit in this run is Arroyo, a man who is reasonably well credentialed in grand tours, and who with time on his side appears calm in response to the chase going on behind him.

Like all the Spaniards Arroyo is happiest when the road points upwards so with the exception of stage 18 (one for the sprinters) and 21 (15km TT), the race ahead suits his abilities.

The only question for Arroyo is if he and his seven-man Caisse d'Epargne squad can withstand the assault to come from a fully stocked Liquigas team.

That Arroyo's lead is under threat is without doubt, and of the five riders inside five minutes I think he looks the weakest, losing time on consecutive days but riding well enough to maintain his lead.

Vincenzo Nibali is seemingly matching Arroyo on form after his terrific win on stage 14, but he looks the next weakest of any potential race winner.

However Nibali and Ivan Basso both belong to a team that has emerged as the strongest in this tour so his future prospects may be somewhat better than Arroyo's.

With five stages left to go, the second placed Basso is the rider with the most to lose, and to win. The Italian came into the Giro looking a bit underdone but his condition has only improved as the race has gone on.

With a full strength team at his disposal, very good legs and a selection of stages that should not trouble him, Basso is clearly the man to beat.

Given their strength at the top of the table, Liquigas have to be looking at placing two men on the podium in Verona.

The two riders left in this quartet are Cadel Evans and Carlos Sastre, both riders I figured to be in the running for the overall and both riders who have the potential to make up big chunks of time on their rivals.

For Sastre that is likely to come in one sustained attack on one of the remaining climbs. His ability to ride to a big gap is known so there is no reason to suspect it isn't possible.

Sastre also has Xavier Tondo and a full compliment of Cervelo riders to help in his challenge.

Cadel Evans' position is the opposite of Sastre's with the Australian having no real team support (BMC has four riders left). However Evans is very much used to racing alone, having done so before with Silence-Lotto in the Tour de France.

With the exception of Basso, Evans looks the strongest. Again using his grinding style to take time out of his rivals on the insanely difficult climb to Plan de Corones.

On that stage Stefano Garzelli may have been the best of the pretenders, but of the contenders Evans was clearly the best.

So how do I see the podium evolving from here?

A hard-headed approach says Basso will win based on the strength of his team alone, and as we all know, having a team riding strongly in support is utterly important in a grand tour.

Second should go to Arroyo who is likely so see the rest run out of road given his time gap and climbing ability. Based on his obvious strength Evans should manage to make the third step on the podium with Sastre and Nibali following closely.

However, the heart says there is still lots of time and road for Evans to win his first grand tour. His aggressive riding is perfectly suited to the terrain ahead and his consistency on the hardest days also place him in a strong position.