Cadel can still do it

With the presentation of the next year’s Tour and Giro announced, Anthony Tan’s certain Cadel Evans can win either – or both – if all goes to plan.

"Certainly, I think two or three would be [possible]… Conservatively, I'd say two."

This was the response from a battered and bruised Cadel Evans on July 20 this year, the evening following the sixteenth stage of the 2010 Tour de France. At his team hotel on the outskirts of Pau, a famous spa town in thrall to the mighty Pyrenean mountains, I paid him a visit and asked him straight-up: "Realistically, how many chances do you think you have left to win the Tour de France?"

It turned out Evans was a little more than bruised. Pummelled might have been more apt a term.

A week and a half previous, his crash six kilometres into the eighth stage to Morzine-Avoriaz created a hairline fracture of his left elbow and although he took the maillot jaune that day, the incident would precipitate an insidious series of events over the following 48 hours, causing him to fall out of contention in the most inhumane way possible.

That for the next fortnight, he doggedly battled on all the way to Paris was just another defining moment in the career of perhaps the gutsiest modern day cycling champion of the 21st century; that he finished an anonymous 26th overall, 50 minutes and 27 seconds behind Alberto Contador, is irrelevant.

So... with two bona-fide chances left, and possibly three, I guess what all Australian cycling fans want to know is: Does the parcours of the 2011 Tour lend itself to a rider of Evans' characteristics and capabilities?

Regardless of the course, I can say Cadel's characteristics and capabilities lend themselves to Grand Tours, full-stop. So even before the route of the Tour, and this past weekend, the Giro d'Italia, was announced, the parcours favours him.

Why?

Well, as BMC's sports doctor, the renowned Max Testa, told me at this year's Tour: "I think Cadel is a special combination, somebody definitely very physiologically gifted and also mentally strong. Cadel is probably the rider who covers all the possibilities: a good time trialist, and he can climb with the best climbers."

The four mountain-top finishes and two hilltop finishes make this 2011 Tour the most climber-friendly in recent history, and the seven summit finishes at the 2011 Giro do likewise for that race.

What's more, given the downward trend in ITTs at the Tour de France since 2006 – 116km, 117km, 82km, 55km, 59km and now just 41km (excluding team time trials) – organisers ASO clearly want a pure climber to win next year's edition of La Grande Boucle.

Gifted against the clock he may be, I don't believe the lack of individual time trials – 41 and 46.5 kilometres, respectively – will affect Evans' chances at winning either race, for the reasons Testa's mentioned. His ability to adapt to the course, rather than bemoan the lack of time trialing kilometres or steep mountains or whatever, is one of the Victorian's greatest assets.

From what I saw at both the Giro and Tour, the greatest area for improvement in terms of enhancing Evans' chances of winning a Grand Tour before he retires is the strength of his team. This was particularly evident at this year's Giro, where he found himself either caught out in a dangerous situation, unsheltered from the elements, or alone when chasing down a breakaway.

That BMC Racing's owner and team manager, Andy Rihs and John Lelangue, have addressed the shortfall by signing eight new recruits so far including Manuel Quinziato and Ivan Santaromita (from Liquigas-Doimo), Greg Van Avermaert (Omega Pharma-Lotto) and the recently-crowned American U23 World TT champ, Taylor Phinney (Trek-Livestrong), bodes very well indeed.

And should he decide to ride both the Giro and Tour, BMC's power upgrade will surely be noticeable when it comes to the team time trials: 21.5km on Stage 1 (Giro) and 23km on Stage 2 (Tour) – let's not forget that abysmal performance by Silence-Lotto at the 2009 Tour, where Evans' team conceded two-and-a-half minutes to Astana over 39km around Montpellier.

For Evans at least, I somewhat disagree with Team Sky Sean Yates' assessment that the majority of Tour contenders will likely skip the Giro because of its difficulty: "I'm not expecting many of the Tour favourites to be competing because I think it's simply going to be too hard to do both races in such a short space of time," he said after the presentation of the 94th edition of 'la Corsa Rosa' Saturday in Turin, the start town of the 2011 race.

If the past two years have shown anything, it's that Cadel is capable of riding well in two Grand Tours per season, and excluding circumstance and bad luck, he generally goes better in the second. In fact, it was at January's Tour Down Under where he said to me it was his performance at the 2009 Vuelta a España that convinced him it was so.

"Previously, I had a bit of preconceived doubt [about riding two Grand Tours in one season), but last year, I proved to people that matter to me – me and my coach [Aldo Sassi] – that we could do it. I think I'm one rider who's capable of doing two good Grand Tours in one year, and 2010's the year to find out," he said.

We'll never know how Evans would have fared had he not fractured his arm at the Tour, or how he would have gone had he not been so alone at the Giro.

But enough ifs and buts. What I know – and I'm sure Cadel does, too – is that he's still very much in the running to win either.

Or, should everything go perfectly next year, possibly both.

In a future blog, I'll discuss what Evans told me is one of his strengths, which can also be an impediment when it comes to targeting three-week Tours.