Look out for Carlos

In many ways Carlos Sastre's 2010 Giro d'Italia has tracked along the same lines as that of Cadel Evans, writes Philip Gomes.

Largely forgotten going into this years Giro d'Italia was the performance of 2008 Tour de France champion Carlos Sastre in the 2009 edition of the Italian race.

The quiet Spaniard always manages to slip under the radar of many race watchers, making waves only when it counts, on the highest mountains of a Grand Tour.

Last year Sastre managed a 4th place finish, 3 minutes and 46 seconds down on race winner Denis Menchov. Also in front of Sastre were two riders who are now either disgraced or under a cloud for doping - Danilo Di Luca and Franco Pellizotti.

Along the way, Cervelo's Sastre also managed to win two of the hardest stages of the 2009 race, the 237 km stage from Pergola to Monte Petrano and the 164km killer from Avellino to Mount Vesuvius.

Given that, the 'real' podium from that race takes on a whole new flavour, and with Menchov absent in defense of his 2009 title, why isn't Sastre considered the outright favourite to win this year?

Indeed, outside of Evans and possibly Basso, there isn't a single rider in the race with the Spaniards current grand tour pedigree.

Who can forget his attack on Alpe d'Huez in the 2008 Tour de France where he finished 2 minutes and 15 seconds ahead of Evans? Then followed up that ride with the time-trial of his life on stage 20, preventing Evans from taking the Yellow Jersey.

Remembering his outstanding performances in the 2008 Tour de France and 2009 Giro d'Italia, I see Sastre as second only to Australia's Evans as the man to beat in this years race.

And like Evans, Sastre is also faced with having to make a decision of which race to prioritise, the Giro or the Tour?

Given the absence of 2009 Tour de France winner Alberto Contador and second placed Andy Schleck, you would have to think the Giro is the Spaniards best chance to win a grand tour in 2010.

Sastre and Evans have closely mirrored Giro performances so far, with both losing time after involvement in some of the crashes in the Netherlands and both doing enough in the time-trials to stay within striking distance of the race lead.

Both are also closely positioned on the general classification with Evans only 14 seconds ahead of Sastre - with the seriously hard stages yet to come.

It is in the final eight stages where I expect the Spaniard (and Evans) to seriously launch himself into contention for the overall title.

There I expect to see Sastre really open up on the 218 kilometre 15th stage from Mestre to Monte Zoncolan and particularly the stage 16 12.8 kilometre mountain individual time-trial to the Plan de Corones, which follows the final rest day.

"I am looking forward to the first climbing stage, because the race will be more organized than now once we get into the mountains this weekend," Sastre said following the 5th stage.

After the first five stages aren't we all looking forward to a rise in the road?

In fact I expect to see Sastre in pink following the Plan de Corones time-trial, with Evans perhaps closely following, biding his time until the last three days where two mountain stages and a closing individual time-trial await.