TdF Files: A tale of two riders

After seventeen stages, the contrast between the maillot jaune incumbent and its wannabe could not be more apparent, writes Anthony Tan from Pinerolo, Italy.

Before I lose face, it's time to revise my prognostic on Thomas Voeckler: by the time the race finishes in Paris, four days from now, he will not be standing on the podium.

Until yesterday's stage to Gap, the 32-year-old had shown not just the trademark courage he's largely made his own since his groundbreaking 2004 Tour de France, but an ability never seen before.

He climbed with the very best to Luz-Ardiden. He did it again to the Plateau de Beille. But the past two days, it's become evident that his week in yellow has insidiously begun to take its toll.

However, after his near-miss with fate in today's seventeenth stage, on the sinuous final descent of the Côte de Pramartino, he says he's simply happy to be alive and still kicking in the maillot jaune.

"I tried to attack on the downhill because I wanted to gain some seconds, but instead… I think I went beyond my limits on the descent," Voeckler said.

"In fact, I'm very lucky to be here right now, so that's why I'm not disappointed that I lost time today."

Losing 21 seconds to Cadel Evans yesterday and a further 27 seconds today, Voeckler's advantage to the man we hope to be the first Australian to win the Tour has been stripped back to a lean 1:18.

Normally fearless and fluid on descents, Voeckler, who was right on his limit over the top of the Pramartino climb, its summit eight kilometres from the finish in Pinerolo, showed what cumulative fatigue and redlining his motor can do to a man.

"Normally, when you make the first mistake on a downhill, it's difficult to go the right way for the rest of the descent. I wanted to follow [Alberto] Contador and [Samuel] Sanchez but maybe it was wiser to go with Evans and [Andy] Schleck.

"The second time I went off the road," said Voeckler, "I had no time for reflection. There were steps on the side of the road, so what I did was close my eyes, lift my front wheel, and when I opened my eyes, I was still on my bike.

"I was already very tired from the climb, so when you are at that point when you are giving it all, you are not lucid enough."

At this point in the race and with two of the hardest stages to come, Voeckler has no opportunity left to recover. Even before he starts the Grenoble time trial, he will, most likely, be as lively as a dead dingo's donger.

Tomorrow, on the final climb of the Col du Galibier, although not overly steep with an average of just 4.9 percent, I expect him to crack.

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Now contrast Voeckler's physical decay against the resurgence of Contador, and even though his daring move with Samuel Sanchez did not pay off, it demonstrates Bertie will not be wondering what might've been by the time we reach Paris.

After the stage to Gap, the defending Tour champ said Sanchez "can be a great ally" – which effectively gives Contador an extra team-mate as we head to the Galibier tomorrow and Alpe d'Huez Saturday.

But from the past two stages, what appears clear is that Contador cares little for who goes with him. To attack is his only option, and until he closes the gap to Evans, he will do so repeatedly until someone cracks – even if it that someone is Contador himself.

This is proving to be an intriguing Grande Boucle, for until this year, we have never seen the Spaniard so far on the back foot.

In the previous six Grand Tours he's won, Contador has never encountered such misfortune, nor has he been in this position. If he wins the sport's blue riband prize from here, it will go down as one of the most spectacular comebacks in Tour de France history.

But only the Court of Arbitration for Sport can say whether he can keep it.

Follow Anthony on Twitter: @anthony_tan