TdF Files: It’s in the bag

All things being equal, Anthony Tan has no doubt that Cadel Evans will be wearing the maillot jaune into Paris this Sunday, as he writes from atop Alpe d’Huez.

Even though I will be there in Grenoble tomorrow, unashamedly cheering him on, I do not need to see him perform in the time trial.

In this race of truth, I know what he can do, he knows what he can do – and I believe he will do it.

By some margin, Cadel Evans' scariest moment Friday was on the slopes of the Col du Télégraphe, the day's first climb. With some 15km ridden something was amiss, for he had to jump off his Swiss-made BMC machine thrice, finally changing his bike the third time.

The defending champion, Alberto Contador, who initiated the early move that Andy Schleck latched onto, did not wait for his erstwhile Australian companion, but instead forged ahead. A little like last year on the Port de Balès, when Andy Schleck dropped his chain, I thought to myself…

"The early attack of Contador, I was sort of expecting it," Evans said after the stage.

"It was early; a really, really bold move, like what Andy did yesterday. I was sitting well but I was feeling like absolute… I was feeling pretty average. I think there was something wrong with my rear wheel, it was slowing me down a bit; when there was a little acceleration, it just put me over the limit, which was a little bit strange.

"I think [the rear wheel] was rubbing on the frame. I wasn't sure about it, but it sure felt like it! And for that reason, I changed bikes. When they're going pretty fast in front and you have to stop three times, the chances of getting back by yourself are pretty limited."

Perhaps in the hope he might be able to stage one of the greatest comebacks in modern Tour de France history, more likely, it was the Spaniard's last attempt to save face in a Grande Boucle he'd probably rather forget.

'Would Cadel see them again?' I wondered, before Tweeting a prediction: "If Cadel does not limit his deficit to either of the Schlecks by 2:00 by day's end, he will lose the Tour."

* * *

Over the Télégraphe and onto the hard side of the Col du Galibier, Contador and Schleck forged onwards and upwards.

The Luxembourger knew if they came to the following day's time trial with less than a minute's advantage over Evans, he would most probably lose the Tour. And if he came to the TT with two minutes or more, than he would most probably win.

As on the stage to Galibier Serre-Chevalier Thursday, Evans was forced to do all the work, limiting his deficit on the 16.7km climb and hoping that he could latch back on before Bourg d'Oisans, best known among cyclists for being situated 1.2km from the base of Alpe d'Huez, where Friday's 109.5km stage, the final Alpine leg, would end.

Thanks largely to no-one except himself, Cadel threw his engine into overdrive – assiduously, persistently, bringing himself and his hangers-on back, which included Fränk Schleck, the man I was most concerned about.

The elder of the Schleck brothers had sat on all day yesterday, and so far, all day today. As the Contador and Evans group arrived en masse at the foot of the Alpe it was logical to expect an attack – but Fränk was one of the first to be dropped and even though he got back on, it was clear today was not his day.

* * *

Contador had gone after Ryder Hesjedal and eventual stage winner and new maillot blanc, Pierre Rolland. But Evans didn't need to worry; he had 2:32 on the Spaniard at the start of today and thus was not a threat.

With Voeckler gone on the Télégraphe 70km back, the Schleck brothers were the only men Cadel needed to concern himself with. And as he most likely calculated, so long as he maintained the gaps as they stood on the general classification, he could win the bike race with a superlative ride in Grenoble tomorrow.

By day's end, the time between Evans and the brothers Schleck stood still.

* * *

Not much more than an hour after the stage, Andy Schleck rolled into the press conference, the maillot jaune on his bony shoulders. 'Have you ridden the time trial course yet,' I asked him, 'and if so, what are your impressions? Is it a course that suits your ability?'

"Honestly, it's one of the stages that I haven't seen," he said, rather surprisingly.

"I saw it on TV [at the Critérium du Dauphiné] and I'm going to see it tomorrow morning. But I know what it's a little bit like: everybody tells me it's a time trial that suits me good, so… I hope to show a great performance tomorrow."

Even though he said "I'm confident I can actually keep this [jersey] till Paris", to me, Schleck the Younger appeared nervous. And to have not ridden a stage that may decide whether you win or lose?

* * *

As Evans said yesterday, the time trial "was always going to be crucial", and having ridden it a month earlier at the Dauphiné and placed fifth to Tony Martin, conceding 1:20, he also said, "there can be big gaps if you arrive there a little less fatigued than those around you".

Contrast this with the 32.1km time trial the Schlecks rode at the Tour de Suisse. On the ninth and final stage, Fabian Cancellara won in 41:01 and Andy and Fränk conceded 2:32 and 3:06, respectively.

So in theory, you would expect the Schlecks to lose even more time in a 42.5km test. But as last year's final time trial at the Tour showed, strange things happen after 19 days of racing your guts out.

On the penultimate day's TT at the 2010 Tour, a 52km time test from Bordeaux to Pauillac, won by Cancellara, Contador was 35th at 5:43 to the Swiss Time Lord, Andy Schleck was 49th at 6:14, and Evans, riding with a broken elbow the past fortnight, was 166th at 10:57 – fourth last!

Cadel summed up his strategy tomorrow as thus: "Start as fast as possible, finish as fast as possible… [and] hope it's fast enough."

Follow Anthony on Twitter: @anthony_tan