The final mountain stage of the 2021 Tour de France is also the only stage in this year's race that riders will tackle two hors categorie (hardest in the climb rankings) ascents, the Col du Tourmalet and the climb to Luz Ardiden. At just 129.7 kilometres, it will be a short, sharp stage packed full of action.
The mountains jersey will be decided tomorrow, the podium positions are in the balance, the fight for the green jersey continues and the lure of a mountain-top stage win dangles at the end of the stage as a big prize.
Stage 18 profile- Tour de France 2021 Source: ASO
GC fight
Pogačar has been described as untouchable in the yellow jersey by his rivals and that seems right. The Slovenian phenom doesn't have any obvious weaknesses and doesn't look like he's about to crack. The one time he has been dropped at all, was when he was second best on Mont Ventoux and he ended up not conceding any time on the stage.
However, the battle for the podium is going to be an interesting one, particularly after the drama in the final kilometres between Richard Carapaz (INEOS Grenadiers) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma). Carapaz sat on while Vingegaard was looking to put time into the rest of the field and then attacked late.
The Ecuadorian clearly has a target on the young Dane's back and was thinking about taking precious seconds on him before the upcoming time trial, where Vingegaard will start favoured to take up to a minute on Carapaz.
Carapaz made a promise on Twitter in the wake of the stage. "Today, we try to reach the top, but as they say there is always revenge. More tomorrow."
That promises some sort of attack, maybe even one from afar. Not much of what INEOS Grenadiers has done to date has been particularly effective, but in order to take the sort of time they'll need on Vingegaard, it will likely have to be some sort of long-range raid. If INEOS put riders in the break, that will likely be the foundation for a Carapaz assault on the Col du Tourmalet.
On the other hand, maybe they just make the race as hard as possible and hope that the inexperienced Vingegaard has troubles matching his performance of the day before.
Ben O'Connor (AG2R-Citroen) is very happy with fifth overall and has every right to be, but after attacking and putting Rigoberto Uran (EF Education-Nippo) on the final kilometres of Stage 17, he'll be looking at that 17 second gap to Uran in fourth place and will be eyeing an upgrade. The Australian loves an aggressive move as well, if any of the contenders are thinking of going big from the top of the Col du Tourmalet, they could find that the West Australian is along for the ride.
Who will take the stage?
This will likely come down to the breakaway versus the general classification contenders, and after a timid ride from many of the likely candidates for a mountains win on Stage 17, there appear to be a number of riders with their eyes set on the peak of Luz Ardiden.
It's a much shorter stage, so less effort will need to be expended on the flatlands to start, but it will also mean that less chasing is required by the GC teams if they want to make sure it's another fight between the top riders. UAE Team Emirates have their stage win on the road now, they get to say 'stuff you' to the commentators calling them a one-man team, so perhaps that hunger won't be there for a repeat performance.
On the other hand, success breeds success and another potential stage win and also the mountains jersey on the line might just mean that it's another all-in effort for another win in yellow.
The polka dot destination
The 'King of the Mountains' battle will very likely be over after the stage, with just three mountains points left on the road after the summit finish on Luz Ardiden. 'As goes the stage, so does the mountains jersey' isn't a saying... yet, but it might be with all these double-point hors categorie finishes skewing the hunt for the dots to the winners of those stages.
Pogačar vaulted his way up the standings with his victory yesterday, and sits just eleven points behind leader Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious). If Pogačar wins the stage again tonight, Poels would have to have to take 30 points (Pogačar leads on countback) on the rest of the day's racing to keep his lead.
There are 20 points over the top of the Col du Tourmalet, but then Poels would also have to hang on for at least sixth for the stage finish.
Pogačar has shown that at least has an eye on the classification, during Stage 17 he was sixth with a minimal acceleration to take a single point on the Col de Val Louren-Azet. He did a similar thing in 2020 enroute to his feat of possessing three jerseys in Paris. He picked up a few extra points over an uncontested mountain point over the Col de Madeleine, which ended up being his entire margin of victory in the classification over Carapaz.
It's not just Poels and Pogačar in the fight, Nairo Quintana (Arkea-Samsic), Michael Woods (Israel Start-Up Nation) and Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) could all conceivably push themselves onto the podium in Paris with a high stage finish, so the battle for the breakaway will be an exciting one, and then the fight between the peloton and the escapees will likely determine the final winner.
It all adds to be an exciting stage with plenty of 'races within the race' and hopefully another dramatic battle in the high mountains for the stage win.
Watch the Tour de France Stage 18 racing action from 2130 AEST on SBS, SBS OnDemand and the SKODA Tour Tracker.
