A stacked weekend lies ahead with all four quarter-finals kicking off live and free on SBS On Demand at 1:30AM and 5:30AM AEDT on Saturday and Sunday.
With the competition down to the last eight teams, Brazil remain favourites to win this year's World Cup according to data analytics from Nielsen Gracenote.
Brazil's chance of emerging victorious is now 25%. Argentina, who Brazil will meet in the semi-finals if both get through their quarter-final ties, now have 20% chance of winning.
Portugal have a 13% chance of lifting the World Cup and have become the leading team on the other side of the draw after thrashing Switzerland in their Round-of-16 match. They are followed by the Netherlands and France (both on 11%), and England have a 10% chance of winning World Cup 2022.
The left side of the bracket contains the top three teams on Gracenote's world ranking, Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands. Numbers four, six and seven on our ranking - Portugal, France and England - are on the right side of the bracket. Croatia and Morocco are ranked 12th and 14th in the world respectively, using a different system than the FIFA World Rankings.
Highlighted Statistics
- Brazil are favourites to win the 2022 World Cup with Gracenote's updated predictions estimating a 25% chance of the team lifting the trophy on December 18. Argentina are the main challengers with a 20% chance of winning followed by Portugal on 13%, the Netherlands and France (both on 11%), and then England, estimated to have 10% chance of winning.
- Brazil and Argentina are guaranteed to meet in the semi-finals if both get past their next opponents. A repeat of the Euro 2016 final between France and Portugal is a potential semi-final on the other side of the draw.
- The four most likely teams to reach the semi-finals are (in order of likelihood); Brazil, Portugal , Argentina and France. Given the odds, one to two of those teams can be expected to be surprised and not make it to the last four.
- The most likely World Cup finalists are Brazil (39% chance) and Portugal (30%). Argentina have 31% chance but cannot get to the final if Brazil do. France (27%), England (25%), Netherlands (19%), Morocco (18%) and Croatia (11%) complete the possibilities.
- A Brazil v Portugal final leads the 16 possible World Cup finals at this stage, with a chance of 11.9% of happening.
Brazil (70%) are the big favourites to progress to the semi-finals, followed by Portugal (59%), Argentina (58%) and France (51%). The tightest quarter-final match appears to be France v England.
Gracenote's World Cup 2022 brackets
Brazil remain favourites to win World Cup 2022 and are given 25% chance of doing so, Argentina are second favourites on 20% followed by Portugal on 13%, the Netherlands and France (both on 11%), and then England, estimated to have 10% chance of winning.
There are only 16 possible World Cup finals left at this stage. The most likely is Brazil v Portugal which has just 11.9% chance of happening. It is followed by Brazil v France (10.6%), Brazil v England (9.7%) and Argentina v Portugal (9.4%). These are the only finals currently with at least a 9% chance of taking place.
About Gracenote
Gracenote is the content solutions pillar of Nielsen providing entertainment metadata, content IDs and related offerings to the world’s leading creators, distributors and platforms. Gracenote technology enables advanced content navigation and discovery capabilities ensuring consumers can easily connect to the music, TV Shows, movies and sports they love while delivering powerful content analytics making complex business decisions simpler.
