Opinion

How Saudi Arabia and Japan surprised millions, but not themselves

Saudi Arabia and Japan secured two of the biggest upset victories in recent FIFA World Cup history against Argentina and Germany respectively, but a supposed hidden formula to their success explains everything about how the upsets unravelled.

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Players of Saudi Arabia (L) and Japan (R) celebrate their respective wins against Argentina and Germany at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Source: Getty.

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In what some have called the greatest upset in the World Cup's entire 92-year history, Saudi Arabia overcame a Lionel Messi penalty conceded inside the opening 10 minutes of their match with Argentina on Tuesday (AEDT) to score two early second-half goals, downing one of the tournament's heavy favourites 2-1 to take an unexpected lead in Group C.

A mere 27 hours later, Japan became the second team from Asia to notch a win on the cup's opening matchday, also coming from behind to overturn İlkay Gündoğan's 33rd-minute penalty via an eight-minute passage late on in the match, which saw goals from substitutes Ritsu Dōan and Takuma Asano as they went on to stun the European heavyweights, 2-1.

It is the second tournament in a row that two sides from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) have won in the first block of games, with Iran downing Morocco in their opening group match at Russia 2018 and Japan upsetting the highly-fancied Colombia.

However, the early tournament success of two nations from the continent feels very different this time around.
The reason Saudi Arabia, who are currently ranked 51st in the FIFA world rankings, shocked so many people on Tuesday was not only due to their relative obscurity outside the Asian footballing world, but was also on account of the fact that all players from their 26-man squad play within their own domestic league.

Compare this to Argentina's endless list of superstars including Messi, Lautaro Martinez and Angel di Maria, who play for Paris Saint-Germain, Inter and Juventus among various other European powerhouses, and there should be no surprise at the magnitude of this shock result.
However, the Green Falcons' head coach, tactical genius Hervé Renard, seemingly anticipated the upset victory upon the possibility of being severely underestimated by their South American opposition.

"We love it when they forget about us and consider us the smallest team. In the World Cup, there are surprises and that is the mentality we have," Renard told European publication, Euro Foot.

Renard, who coached Morocco at the previous World Cup, has a handsome record in internationals, which includes steering unknowns Zambia to their maiden Africa Cup of Nations title in 2012 and following suit at the tournament with Ivory Coast only three years later.

Taking the reins at the Green Falcons in 2019, it was the same year in which the national team would secure exclusive access to a training ground at Sealine Beach in Qatar, being cited as a significant factor in their tournament preparation and subsequent early success by various sources.
Not only was their lead-up to the 2022 finals ideal due to their access to the training facility and familiarity with the desert-like conditions in Qatar, but the Saudis also played six friendlies in the month leading up to the tournament, which sowed the seeds of their famous victory over Argentina.

Renard's aggressive defensive tactics applied during the match paid off in spades, as the Saudi high line and press provided little time for the South American side's star-studded midfield to work their magic.

It was a similar story for Japan, who also got it tactically right on the night against the Germans.

Despite Die Mannschaft occupying 74 per cent of possession in the match and having the better of the chances, the European outfit were largely ineffective on the attack overall with 10 of their 26 attempts coming from outside the box.

The attacking duo of Kai Havertz and veteran Thomas Muller also failed to register a single shot on target between them, although the eventual defeat ultimately had more to do with Hajime Moriyasu's tactical masterclass rather than the Germans' inefficiency in front of goal.

The compactness of the Japanese midfield created many problems for Germany going forward, and the subsequent pressure the Samurai Blue applied provided them with many opportunities to hit back on the counter-attack.
This approach was on full display when the Japanese head coach made the switch to a back five at half-time, exploiting both Germany's problems in attack and their vulnerabilities at the back, namely when substitute Asano managed to hold off German centre-half Nico Schlotterbeck and sneak the ball past Manuel Neuer to claim the winner.

Like their AFC affiliates in Saudi Arabia, Japan would have likely assumed a quiet confidence ahead of the match upon five players from their starting 11, as well as while both goalscoring substitutes in Doan and Asano, currently playing in the Bundesliga.

Defender Ko Itakura and midfielder Daichi Kamada even came up against their teammates from Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt respectively in Jonas Hofmann and Mario Gotze, who both appeared off the bench for Germany.

It was likely through this familiarity with the German outfit and style of play, coupled with Moriyasu's tactical genius on the night, which paved the way for the famous victory as they followed on from the shock success of their affiliates Saudi Arabia from the day before - completed in eerily similar circumstances.
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5 min read

Published

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By Jimmy Alexander
Source: SBS


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